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Rabies control in Bangladesh and prediction of human rabies cases by 2030: a One Health approach.
Ghosh, Sumon; Hasan, Mohammad Nayeem; Nath, Nirmalendu Deb; Haider, Najmul; Jones, Daleniece Higgins; Islam, Md Kamrul; Rahaman, M Mujibur; Mursalin, Hasan Sayedul; Mahmud, Nadim; Kamruzzaman, Md; Rabby, Md Fazlay; Kar, Shotabdi; Ullah, Sayed Mohammed; Ali Shah, Md Rashed; Jahan, Afsana Akter; Rana, Md Sohel; Chowdhury, Sukanta; Uddin, Md Jamal; Sunil, Thankam S; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Siddiqui, Umme Ruman; Kaisar, S M Golam; Islam, Md Nazmul.
Afiliación
  • Ghosh S; Department of Public Health, College of Education, Health, and Human Sciences, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.
  • Hasan MN; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Nath ND; Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
  • Haider N; Department of Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA.
  • Jones DH; School of Life Sciences, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, United Kingdom.
  • Islam MK; Department of Public Health, College of Education, Health, and Human Sciences, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.
  • Rahaman MM; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Mursalin HS; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Mahmud N; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Kamruzzaman M; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Rabby MF; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Kar S; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Ullah SM; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Ali Shah MR; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Jahan AA; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Rana MS; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Chowdhury S; Livestock Research Institute, Department of Livestock Services, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Uddin MJ; International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Sunil TS; Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
  • Ahmed BN; Faculty of Graduate Studies, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, 1216, Bangladesh.
  • Siddiqui UR; Department of Public Health, College of Education, Health, and Human Sciences, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.
  • Kaisar SMG; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
  • Islam MN; Disease Control Unit, Communicable Disease Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh.
Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia ; 27: 100452, 2024 Aug.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39140082
ABSTRACT

Background:

Bangladesh is making progress toward achieving zero dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030, a global goal set in 2015.

Methods:

Drawing from multiple datasets, including patient immunisation record books and mass dog vaccination (MDV) databases, we conducted a comprehensive analysis between 2011 and 2023 to understand the effectiveness of rabies control programmes and predict human rabies cases in Bangladesh by 2030 using time-series forecasting models. We also compared rabies virus sequences from GenBank in Bangladesh and other South Asian countries.

Findings:

The estimated dog population in Bangladesh was determined to be 1,668,140, with an average dog population density of 12.83 dogs/km2 (95% CI 11.14-14.53) and a human-to-dog ratio of 86.70 (95% CI 76.60-96.80). The MDV campaign has led to the vaccination of an average of 21,295 dogs (95% CI 18,654-23,935) per district annually out of an estimated 26,065 dogs (95% CI 22,898-29,230). A declining trend in predicted and observed human rabies cases has been identified, suggesting that Bangladesh is poised to make substantial progress towards achieving the 'Zero by 30' goal, provided the current trajectory continues. The phylogenetic analysis shows that rabies viruses in Bangladesh belong to the Arctic-like-1 group, which differs from those in Bhutan despite sharing a common ancestor.

Interpretation:

Bangladesh's One Health approach demonstrated that an increase in MDV and anti-rabies vaccine (ARV) resulted in a decline in the relative risk of human rabies cases, indicating that eliminating dog-mediated human rabies could be achievable.

Funding:

The study was supported by the Communicable Disease Control (CDC) Division of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido