Airport time profile construction driven by flight delay prediction.
Sci Rep
; 14(1): 18715, 2024 Aug 12.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39134600
ABSTRACT
Slot structure is the equilibrium result of market demand side and slot resource supply side, while slot parameters reflect the operational support capacity of the aviation system. Time parameters reflect the operational support capability of the aviation system. Time structure should not only reflect changes in market demand, but also meet the constraints of operational efficiency. Constructing a reasonable 18-24 h timetable profile for busy airports that meets normal expectations for declared capacity and seasonal scheduling is a challenge in civil aviation slot management. This study utilizes historical data on airport flights and weather conditions to establish a regression prediction model for the time structure using K-means clustering and partial least squares regression. Additionally, ensemble learning is employed to forecast flight delay levels. The findings demonstrate that random forest yields favorable results in regression and prediction tasks, allowing for the integration of upper (good weather) and lower (severse weather) limits of the time profile with delay predictions as time parameter intervals. Consequently, the flights falling within these intervals achieve an average delay level of less than 15 min which meets the expectations of normal flight.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China
Pais de publicación:
Reino Unido