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Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe.
van der Deure, Tiem; Maes, Tim; Huyse, Tine; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie.
Afiliación
  • van der Deure T; Section for Parasitology and Aquatic Pathobiology, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
  • Maes T; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
  • Huyse T; Laboratory for Biodiversity and Evolutionary Genomics, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
  • Stensgaard AS; Laboratory for Biodiversity and Evolutionary Genomics, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(8): e17434, 2024 Aug.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39105284
ABSTRACT
The freshwater snail Bulinus truncatus is an important intermediate host for trematode parasites causing urogenital schistosomiasis, a tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Despite its medical importance, uncertainty remains about its global distribution and the potential impacts of climate change on its future spread. Here, we investigate the distribution of B. truncatus, combining the outputs of correlative and mechanistic modelling methods to fully capitalize on both experimental and occurrence data of the species and to create a more reliable distribution forecast than ever constructed. We constructed ensemble correlative species distribution models using 273 occurrence points collected from different sources and a combination of climatic and (bio)physical environmental variables. Additionally, a mechanistic thermal suitability model was constructed, parameterized by recent life-history data obtained through extensive lab-based snail-temperature experiments and supplemented with an extensive literature review. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for B. truncatus encompasses the Sahel region, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean segment of Africa, stretching from Southern Europe to Mozambique. Regions identified as suitable by both methods generally coincide with areas exhibiting high urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence. Model projections into the future suggest an overall net increase in suitable area of up to 17%. New suitable habitat is in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and large parts of Central Africa, while suitable habitat will be lost in the Sahel region. The change in snail habitat suitability may substantially increase the risk of urogenital schistosomiasis transmission in parts of Africa and Southern Europe while reducing it in the Sahel region.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cambio Climático / Esquistosomiasis Urinaria Límite: Animals / Humans País/Región como asunto: Africa / Europa Idioma: En Revista: Glob Chang Biol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Dinamarca Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
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XML
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cambio Climático / Esquistosomiasis Urinaria Límite: Animals / Humans País/Región como asunto: Africa / Europa Idioma: En Revista: Glob Chang Biol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Dinamarca Pais de publicación: Reino Unido