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Construction and application of fetal loss risk model in systemic lupus erythematosus patients with mild disease severity.
Chen, Yanran; Chen, Yanjuan; Li, Bo; Xu, Wengyi; Lei, Peipei; Liu, Hongyang; Liu, Dongzhou; Hong, Xiaoping.
Afiliación
  • Chen Y; The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University (Shenzhen People's Hospital), Shenzhen, China.
  • Chen Y; Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Shenzhen People's Hospital, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, The First Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
  • Li B; Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Shenzhen Longhua people's Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
  • Xu W; Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Shenzhen People's Hospital, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, The First Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
  • Lei P; Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Shenzhen People's Hospital, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, The First Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
  • Liu H; Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Shenzhen People's Hospital, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, The First Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
  • Liu D; The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University (Shenzhen People's Hospital), Shenzhen, China. liu_dz2001@sina.com.
  • Hong X; Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Shenzhen People's Hospital, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, The First Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China. liu_dz2001@sina.com.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 24(1): 497, 2024 Jul 23.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39044159
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

This dynamic nomogram model was developed to predict the probability of fetal loss in pregnant patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with mild disease severity before conception.

METHODS:

An analysis was conducted on 314 pregnancy records of patients with SLE who were hospitalized between January 2015 and January 2022 at Shenzhen People's Hospital, and the Longhua Branch of Shenzhen People's Hospital. Data from the Longhua Branch of the Shenzhen People's Hospital were utilized as an independent external validation cohort. The nomogram, a widely used statistical visualization tool to predict disease onset, progression, prognosis, and survival, was created after feature selection using multivariate logistic regression analysis. To evaluate the model prediction performance, we employed the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS:

Lupus nephritis, complement 3, immunoglobulin G, serum albumin, C-reactive protein, and hydroxychloroquine were all included in the nomogram model. The model demonstrated good calibration and discriminatory power, with an area under the curve of 0.867 (95% confidence interval 0.787-0.947). According to decision curve analysis, the nomogram model exhibited clinical importance when the probability of fetal loss in patients with SLE ranged between 10 and 70%. The predictive ability of the model was demonstrated through external validation.

CONCLUSION:

The predictive nomogram approach may facilitate precise management of pregnant patients with SLE with mild disease severity before conception.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Complicaciones del Embarazo / Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad / Nomogramas / Lupus Eritematoso Sistémico Límite: Adult / Female / Humans / Pregnancy País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: BMC Pregnancy Childbirth Asunto de la revista: OBSTETRICIA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Complicaciones del Embarazo / Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad / Nomogramas / Lupus Eritematoso Sistémico Límite: Adult / Female / Humans / Pregnancy País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: BMC Pregnancy Childbirth Asunto de la revista: OBSTETRICIA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido