Modeling of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults in the United States: Complexities and Intervention outcomes.
Soc Sci Med
; 354: 117087, 2024 Aug.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39043064
ABSTRACT
Alcohol-impaired driving is a formidable public health problem in the United States, claiming the lives of 37 individuals daily in alcohol-related crashes. Alcohol-impaired driving is affected by a multitude of interconnected factors, coupled with long delays between stakeholders' actions and their impacts, which not only complicate policy-making but also increase the likelihood of unintended consequences. We developed a system dynamics simulation model of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults. This was achieved through group model building sessions with a team of multidisciplinary subject matter experts, and a focused literature review. The model was calibrated with data series from multiple sources and replicated the historical trends for male and female individuals aged 15 to 24 from 1982 to 2020. We simulated the model under different scenarios to examine the impact of a wide range of interventions on alcohol-related crash fatalities. We found that interventions vary in terms of their effectiveness in reducing alcohol-related crash fatalities. In addition, although some interventions reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities, some may increase the number of drinkers who drive after drinking. Based on insights from simulation experiments, we combined three interventions and found that the combined strategy may reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities significantly without increasing the number of alcohol-impaired drivers on US roads. Nevertheless, related fatalities plateau over time despite the combined interventions, underscoring the need for new interventions for a sustained decline in alcohol-related crash deaths beyond a few decades. Finally, through model calibration we estimated time delays between actions and their consequences in the system which provide insights for policymakers and activists when designing strategies to reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Conducción de Automóvil
/
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas
/
Accidentes de Tránsito
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Soc Sci Med
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Reino Unido