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Multiple scenario land use simulation based on a coupled MOGA-PLUS model: a case of the Yellow River Basin.
Li, Guanghui; Chang, Yinghui; Zhang, Pengyan; Wang, Qianxu; Chen, Zhuo; Zhang, Xinyue; Xing, Guangrui; Lu, Rong; Li, Mengfan; Gu, Lei.
Afiliación
  • Li G; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
  • Chang Y; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
  • Zhang P; School of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, 100070, China. pengyanzh@126.com.
  • Wang Q; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China. pengyanzh@126.com.
  • Chen Z; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
  • Zhang X; School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, 44106, USA.
  • Xing G; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
  • Lu R; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
  • Li M; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
  • Gu L; College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 31(30): 42902-42920, 2024 Jun.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38884934
ABSTRACT
Land use changes have profoundly influenced global environmental dynamics. The Yellow River (YR), as the world's fifth-longest river, significantly contributes to regional social and economic growth due to its extensive drainage area, making it a key global player. To ensure ecological stability and coordinate land use demand, modeling the future land allocation patterns of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) will assist in striking a balance between land use functions and the optimization of its spatial design, particularly in water and sand management. In this research, we used a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) with the PLUS model to simulate several different futures for the YRB's land use between 1990 and 2020 and predict its spatial pattern in 2030. An analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use changes in the YRB indicated that construction land expansion is the primary driver of landscape pattern and structure changes and ecological degradation, with climate change also contributing to the expansion of the watershed area. On the other hand, the multi-scenario simulation, constrained by specific targets, revealed that economic development was mainly reflected in land expansion for construction. At the same time, grassland and woodland were essential pillars to support the region's ecological health, and increasing the development of unused land emerged as a potential pathway towards sustainable development in the region. This study could be used as a template for the long-term growth of other large river basins by elucidating the impacts of human activities on land use and rationalizing land resource allocation under various policy constraints.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Conservación de los Recursos Naturales / Ríos País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Asunto de la revista: SAUDE AMBIENTAL / TOXICOLOGIA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Alemania
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Conservación de los Recursos Naturales / Ríos País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Asunto de la revista: SAUDE AMBIENTAL / TOXICOLOGIA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Alemania