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Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird.
Sandretti-Silva, Giovanna; Vannucchi, Fabio Stucchi; Teixeira, Larissa; Tan, Tjui Yeuw; Mori, Gustavo Maruyama; Reinert, Bianca Luiza; Bornschein, Marcos R.
Afiliación
  • Sandretti-Silva G; Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil. giovanna.sandretti@unesp.br.
  • Vannucchi FS; Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil.
  • Teixeira L; Mater Natura - Instituto de Estudos Ambientais, Rua Emiliano Perneta, 297, Conjunto 122, Curitiba, 80010-050, Brazil.
  • Tan TY; Wageningen University & Research, Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Korringaweg, 7, Yerseke, 4401 NT, The Netherlands.
  • Mori GM; Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Wageningen University & Research, De Elst, 1, Wageningen, 6708 WD, The Netherlands.
  • Reinert BL; Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil.
  • Bornschein MR; Departamento de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Biociências, Praça Infante Dom Henrique, S/No, São Vicente, 11330-900, Brazil.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(6): 520, 2024 May 07.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38713379
ABSTRACT
Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Dinámica Poblacional / Conservación de los Recursos Naturales / Humedales Límite: Animals País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Environ Monit Assess Asunto de la revista: SAUDE AMBIENTAL Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Brasil Pais de publicación: Países Bajos
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Dinámica Poblacional / Conservación de los Recursos Naturales / Humedales Límite: Animals País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Environ Monit Assess Asunto de la revista: SAUDE AMBIENTAL Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Brasil Pais de publicación: Países Bajos