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An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.
Touloupou, Panayiota; Fronterre, Claudio; Cano, Jorge; Prada, Joaquin M; Smith, Morgan; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Brown, Paul; Rivera, Rocio Caja; de Vlas, Sake J; Gunawardena, Sharmini; Irvine, Michael A; Njenga, Sammy M; Reimer, Lisa; Seife, Fikre; Sharma, Swarnali; Michael, Edwin; Stolk, Wilma A; Pulan, Rachel; Spencer, Simon E F; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre.
Afiliación
  • Touloupou P; School of Mathematics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom.
  • Fronterre C; CHICAS, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
  • Cano J; Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN), WHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
  • Prada JM; School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom.
  • Smith M; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA.
  • Kontoroupis P; Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Brown P; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
  • Rivera RC; Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA.
  • de Vlas SJ; Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Gunawardena S; Department of Parasitology, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
  • Irvine MA; Data and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada.
  • Njenga SM; Eastern and Southern Africa Centre of International Parasite Control, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Reimer L; Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
  • Seife F; Disease Prevention and Control Directorate, Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Sharma S; Department of Mathematics, Vijaygarh Jyotish Ray College, Kolkata, India.
  • Michael E; Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA.
  • Stolk WA; Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Pulan R; Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
  • Spencer SEF; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
  • Hollingsworth TD; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Clin Infect Dis ; 78(Supplement_2): S108-S116, 2024 Apr 25.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38662704
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS:

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS:

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Filariasis Linfática Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: En Revista: Clin Infect Dis Asunto de la revista: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Reino Unido Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Filariasis Linfática Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: En Revista: Clin Infect Dis Asunto de la revista: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Reino Unido Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos