Unraveling trends in schistosomiasis: deep learning insights into national control programs in China.
Epidemiol Health
; 46: e2024039, 2024.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38514196
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
To achieve the ambitious goal of eliminating schistosome infections, the Chinese government has implemented diverse control strategies. This study explored the progress of the 2 most recent national schistosomiasis control programs in an endemic area along the Yangtze River in China.METHODS:
We obtained village-level parasitological data from cross-sectional surveys combined with environmental data in Anhui Province, China from 1997 to 2015. A convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a hierarchical integro-difference equation (IDE) framework (i.e., CNN-IDE) was used to model spatio-temporal variations in schistosomiasis. Two traditional models were also constructed for comparison with 2 evaluation indicators the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS).RESULTS:
The CNN-IDE model was the optimal model, with the lowest overall average MSPE of 0.04 and the CRPS of 0.19. From 1997 to 2011, the prevalence exhibited a notable trend it increased steadily until peaking at 1.6 per 1,000 in 2005, then gradually declined, stabilizing at a lower rate of approximately 0.6 per 1,000 in 2006, and approaching zero by 2011. During this period, noticeable geographic disparities in schistosomiasis prevalence were observed; high-risk areas were initially dispersed, followed by contraction. Predictions for the period 2012 to 2015 demonstrated a consistent and uniform decrease.CONCLUSIONS:
The proposed CNN-IDE model captured the intricate and evolving dynamics of schistosomiasis prevalence, offering a promising alternative for future risk modeling of the disease. The comprehensive strategy is expected to help diminish schistosomiasis infection, emphasizing the necessity to continue implementing this strategy.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Esquistosomiasis
/
Aprendizaje Profundo
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Health
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China
Pais de publicación: