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Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a 'National Plan' to reopening.
Ryan, Gerard E; Shearer, Freya M; McCaw, James M; McVernon, Jodie; Golding, Nick.
Afiliación
  • Ryan GE; Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, WA, Australia; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: gerard.ryan@telethonkids.org.au.
  • Shearer FM; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • McCaw JM; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
  • McVernon J; Department of Infectious Diseases, Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, The Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immu
  • Golding N; Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, WA, Australia; Curtin University, Perth, Australia.
Epidemics ; 47: 100763, 2024 Jun.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38513465
ABSTRACT
The availability of COVID-19 vaccines promised a reduction in the severity of disease and relief from the strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) imposed in many countries to limit spread and burden of COVID-19. We were asked to define vaccine coverage thresholds for Australia's transition to easing restrictions and reopening international borders. Using evidence of vaccine effectiveness against the then-circulating Delta variant, we used a mathematical model to determine coverage targets. The absence of any COVID-19 infections in many sub-national jurisdictions in Australia posed particular methodological challenges. We used a novel metric called Transmission Potential (TP) as a proxy measure of the population-level effective reproduction number. We estimated TP of the Delta variant under a range of PHSMs, test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) efficiencies, vaccination coverage thresholds, and age-based vaccine allocation strategies. We found that high coverage across all ages (≥70%) combined with ongoing TTIQ and minimal PHSMs was sufficient to avoid lockdowns. At lesser coverage (≤60%) rapid case escalation risked overwhelming of the health sector or the need to reimpose stricter restrictions. Maintaining low case numbers was most beneficial for health and the economy, and at higher coverage levels (≥80%) further easing of restrictions was deemed possible. These results directly informed easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cuarentena / Vacunas contra la COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Oceania Idioma: En Revista: Epidemics Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cuarentena / Vacunas contra la COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Oceania Idioma: En Revista: Epidemics Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos