Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Modeling the Brazilian Cerrado land use change highlights the need to account for private property sizes for biodiversity conservation.
Colman, Carina Barbosa; Guerra, Angélica; Almagro, André; de Oliveira Roque, Fabio; Rosa, Isabel M D; Fernandes, Geraldo Wilson; Oliveira, Paulo Tarso S.
Afiliación
  • Colman CB; Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Urbanism, and Geography, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, 79070-900, Brazil.
  • Guerra A; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil.
  • Almagro A; Instituto Terra Brasilis de Desenvolvimento Socioambiental (ITB), Brasília, Brazil.
  • de Oliveira Roque F; Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Urbanism, and Geography, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, 79070-900, Brazil.
  • Rosa IMD; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil.
  • Fernandes GW; Knowledge Center for Biodiversity -Brazil, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
  • Oliveira PTS; Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, 4811, Australia.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 4559, 2024 02 24.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38402243
ABSTRACT
Simulating future land use changes can be an important tool to support decision-making, especially in areas that are experiencing rapid anthropogenic pressure, such as the Cerrado-Brazilian savanna. Here we used a spatially-explicit model to identify the main drivers of native vegetation loss in the Cerrado and then extrapolate this loss for 2050 and 2070. We also analyzed the role of property size in complex Brazilian environmental laws in determining different outcomes of these projections. Our results show that distance to rivers, roads, and cities, agricultural potential, permanent and annual crop agriculture, and cattle led to observed/historical loss of vegetation, while protected areas prevented such loss. Assuming full adoption of the current Forest Code, the Cerrado may lose 26.5 million ha (± 11.8 95% C.I.) of native vegetation by 2050 and 30.6 million ha (± 12.8 95% C.I.) by 2070, and this loss shall occur mainly within large properties. In terms of reconciling conservation and agricultural production, we recommend that public policies focus primarily on large farms, such as protecting 30% of the area of properties larger than 2500 ha, which would avoid a loss of more than 4.1 million hectares of native vegetation, corresponding to 13% of the predicted loss by 2070.
Asunto(s)
Palabras clave
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Conservación de los Recursos Naturales / Biodiversidad Límite: Animals País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Sci Rep Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Brasil Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Conservación de los Recursos Naturales / Biodiversidad Límite: Animals País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Sci Rep Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Brasil Pais de publicación: Reino Unido