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Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Bayly, Henry; Stoddard, Madison; Van Egeren, Debra; Murray, Eleanor J; Raifman, Julia; Chakravarty, Arijit; White, Laura F.
Afiliación
  • Bayly H; Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Stoddard M; Fractal Therapeutics, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Van Egeren D; Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
  • Murray EJ; Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Raifman J; Department of Health Law, Policy and Management, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Chakravarty A; Fractal Therapeutics, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • White LF; Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. lfwhite@bu.edu.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 595, 2024 Feb 23.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38395830
ABSTRACT
Contact tracing forms a crucial part of the public-health toolbox in mitigating and understanding emergent pathogens and nascent disease outbreaks. Contact tracing in the United States was conducted during the pre-Omicron phase of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This tracing relied on voluntary reporting and responses, often using rapid antigen tests due to lack of accessibility to PCR tests. These limitations, combined with SARS-CoV-2's propensity for asymptomatic transmission, raise the question "how reliable was contact tracing for COVID-19 in the United States"? We answered this question using a Markov model to examine the efficiency with which transmission could be detected based on the design and response rates of contact tracing studies in the United States. Our results suggest that contact tracing protocols in the U.S. are unlikely to have identified more than 1.65% (95% uncertainty interval 1.62-1.68%) of transmission events with PCR testing and 1.00% (95% uncertainty interval 0.98-1.02%) with rapid antigen testing. When considering a more robust contact tracing scenario, based on compliance rates in East Asia with PCR testing, this increases to 62.7% (95% uncertainty interval 62.6-62.8%). We did not assume presence of asymptomatic transmission or superspreading, making our estimates upper bounds on the actual percentages traced. These findings highlight the limitations in interpretability for studies of SARS-CoV-2 disease spread based on U.S. contact tracing and underscore the vulnerability of the population to future disease outbreaks, for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: BMC Public Health Asunto de la revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: BMC Public Health Asunto de la revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido