Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in July 2020.
Pinto, Jose Paulo Guedes; Magalhães, Patrícia Camargo; Figueiredo, Gerusa Maria; Alves, Domingos; Angel, Diana Maritza Segura.
Afiliación
  • Pinto JPG; Universidade Federal do ABC, São Bernardo do Campo, Brasil.
  • Magalhães PC; Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, España.
  • Figueiredo GM; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil.
  • Alves D; Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, Brasil.
  • Angel DMS; Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos, Universidade de São Paulo, São Carlos, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica ; 39(11): e00109522, 2023.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38126417
ABSTRACT
After four months of fighting the pandemic, the city of São Paulo, Brazil, entered a phase of relaxed social distancing measures in July 2020. Simultaneously, there was a decline in the social distancing rate and a reduction in the number of cases, fatalities, and hospital bed occupancy. To understand the pandemic dynamics in the city of São Paulo, we developed a multi-agent simulation model. Surprisingly, the counter-intuitive results of the model followed the city's reality. We argue that this phenomenon could be attributed to local bubbles of protection that emerged in the absence of contagion networks. These bubbles reduced the transmission rate of the virus, causing short and temporary reductions in the epidemic curve - but manifested as an unstable equilibrium. Our hypothesis aligns with the virus spread dynamics observed thus far, without the need for ad hoc assumptions regarding the natural thresholds of collective immunity or the heterogeneity of the population's transmission rate, which may lead to erroneous predictions. Our model was designed to be user-friendly and does not require any scientific or programming expertise to generate outcomes on virus transmission in a given location. Furthermore, as an input to start our simulation model, we developed the COVID-19 Protection Index as an alternative to the Human Development Index, which measures a given territory vulnerability to the coronavirus and includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development, as well as the infrastructure of the city of São Paulo.
Asunto(s)
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Cad Saude Publica Asunto de la revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Brasil Pais de publicación: Brasil
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Cad Saude Publica Asunto de la revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Brasil Pais de publicación: Brasil