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Application of relative importance metrics for CMIP6 models selection in projecting basin-scale rainfall over Johor River basin, Malaysia.
Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Alias, Nor Eliza; Yusop, Zulkifli; Iqbal, Zafar; Houmsi, Mohamad Rajab; Houmsi, Lama Nasrallah; Ramli, Muhammad Wafiy Adli; Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan.
Afiliación
  • Sa'adi Z; Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Univer
  • Alias NE; Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Univer
  • Yusop Z; Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Univer
  • Iqbal Z; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia; NUST Institute of Civil Engineering-SCEE, National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), H-12, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan. Elec
  • Houmsi MR; Center for River and Coastal Engineering (CRCE), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia. Electronic address: rajabhoumsi@utm.my.
  • Houmsi LN; Finance and Banking Department, College of Economics, Aleppo University, Aleppo, Syria. Electronic address: lamahomsi@gmail.com.
  • Ramli MWA; Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11700, Penang, Malaysia. Electronic address: mwadli2@gmail.com.
  • Muhammad MKI; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Electronic address: mohdkhairulidlan@utm.my.
Sci Total Environ ; 912: 169187, 2024 Feb 20.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38097068
ABSTRACT
The most recent set of General Circulation Models (GCMs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was used in this work to analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of future rainfall distribution across the Johor River Basin (JRB) in Malaysia. A group of 23 GCMs were chosen for comparative assessment in simulating basin-scale rainfall based on daily rainfall from the historical period of the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS). The methodological novelty of this study lies in the application of relative importance metrics (RIM) to rank and select historical GCM simulations for reproducing rainfall at 109 CHIRPS grid points within the JRB. In order to choose the top GCMs, the rankings given by RIM were aggregated using the compromise programming index (CPI) and Jenks optimised classification (JOC). It was found that ACCESS-ESM1-5 and CMCC-ESM2 were ranked the highest in most of the grid. The final GCM was then bias-corrected using the linear scaling method before being ensemble based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique. The spatiotemporal assessment of the ensemble model for the different months over the near-future period 2021-2060 and far-future period 2061-2100 was compared with those under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Heterogeneous changes in rainfall were projected across the JRB, with both increasing and decreasing trends. In the near-future and far-future scenarios, higher rainfall was projected for December, indicating an elevated risk of flooding during the end of the North East monsoon (NEM). Conversely, August showed a decreasing trend in rainfall, implying an increasing risk of severe drought. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for effective water resource management and climate change adaptation in the region.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Sci Total Environ Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Sci Total Environ Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos