Human and Algorithmic Predictions in Geopolitical Forecasting: Quantifying Uncertainty in Hard-to-Quantify Domains.
Perspect Psychol Sci
; : 17456916231185339, 2023 Aug 29.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37642169
Research on clinical versus statistical prediction has demonstrated that algorithms make more accurate predictions than humans in many domains. Geopolitical forecasting is an algorithm-unfriendly domain, with hard-to-quantify data and elusive reference classes that make predictive model-building difficult. Furthermore, the stakes can be high, with missed forecasts leading to mass-casualty consequences. For these reasons, geopolitical forecasting is typically done by humans, even though algorithms play important roles. They are essential as aggregators of crowd wisdom, as frameworks to partition human forecasting variance, and as inputs to hybrid forecasting models. Algorithms are extremely important in this domain. We doubt that humans will relinquish control to algorithms anytime soon-nor do we think they should. However, the accuracy of forecasts will greatly improve if humans are aided by algorithms.
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1
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01-internacional
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MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Perspect Psychol Sci
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Estados Unidos