Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for the renal relapse of lupus nephritis.
Med Clin (Barc)
; 161(7): 277-285, 2023 Oct 13.
Article
en En, Es
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37414598
OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess the risk of relapse after complete remission (CR) and partial remission (PR), and to develop a prognostic nomogram predicting the probability in lupus nephritis (LN) patients. METHODS: Data from patients with LN who had been in remission were collected as a training cohort. The prognostic factors were analyzed using the univariable and multivariable Cox model for the training group. A nomogram was then developed using significant predictors in multivariable analysis. Both discrimination and calibration were assessed by bootstrapping with 100 resamples. RESULTS: A total of 247 participants were enrolled, including 108 in the relapse group and 139 in the no relapse group. In multivariate Cox analysis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), complement 1q (C1q), and antiphospholipid (aPL), anti-Sm antibody were found to be significant for predicting relapse rates. The prognostic nomogram including the aforementioned factors effectively predicted 1- and 3-year probability of flare-free. Moreover, a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities was demonstrated using calibration curves. CONCLUSIONS: High SLEDAI, ESR, and positive aPL, anti-Sm antibody are potential risk factors for LN flare, while high C1q can reduce its recurrence. The visualized model we established can help predict the relapse risk of LN and aid clinical decision-making for individual patients.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
/
Es
Revista:
Med Clin (Barc)
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
España