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The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.
Grams, Morgan E; Brunskill, Nigel J; Ballew, Shoshana H; Sang, Yingying; Coresh, Josef; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Surapaneni, Aditya; Bell, Samira; Carrero, Juan J; Chodick, Gabriel; Evans, Marie; Heerspink, Hiddo J L; Inker, Lesley A; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Kalra, Philip A; Kirchner, H Lester; Lee, Brian J; Levin, Adeera; Major, Rupert W; Medcalf, James; Nadkarni, Girish N; Naimark, David M J; Ricardo, Ana C; Sawhney, Simon; Sood, Manish M; Staplin, Natalie; Stempniewicz, Nikita; Stengel, Benedicte; Sumida, Keiichi; Traynor, Jamie P; van den Brand, Jan; Wen, Chi-Pang; Woodward, Mark; Yang, Jae Won; Wang, Angela Yee-Moon; Tangri, Navdeep.
Afiliación
  • Grams ME; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
  • Brunskill NJ; Department of Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York.
  • Ballew SH; Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
  • Sang Y; John Walls Renal Unit, Leicester General Hospital, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, United Kingdom.
  • Coresh J; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
  • Matsushita K; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
  • Surapaneni A; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
  • Bell S; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
  • Carrero JJ; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
  • Chodick G; Department of Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York.
  • Evans M; Renal Unit, Ninewells Hospital, Dundee, United Kingdom and Division of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom.
  • Heerspink HJL; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden.
  • Inker LA; Medical Division, Maccabi Healthcare Services, and Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
  • Iseki K; Department of Clinical Intervention, and Technology (CLINTEC), Karolinska University Hospital and Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Kalra PA; Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center, Groningen, Netherlands.
  • Kirchner HL; Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts.
  • Lee BJ; Okinawa Heart and Renal Association, Okinawa, Japan.
  • Levin A; Department of Renal Medicine, Salford Royal Hospital, Northern Care Alliance NHS Foundation Trust, Salford, United Kingdom.
  • Major RW; Department of Population Health Sciences, Geisinger, Danville, Pennsylvania.
  • Medcalf J; Kaiser Permanente, Hawaii Region, and Moanalua Medical Center, Honolulu, Hawaii.
  • Nadkarni GN; Division of Nephrology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
  • Naimark DMJ; Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
  • Ricardo AC; John Walls Renal Unit, Leicester General Hospital, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, United Kingdom.
  • Sawhney S; Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
  • Sood MM; John Walls Renal Unit, Leicester General Hospital, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, United Kingdom.
  • Staplin N; Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York.
  • Stempniewicz N; Sunnybrook Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
  • Stengel B; Department of Medicine, University of Illinois, Chicago, Illinois.
  • Sumida K; University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom.
  • Traynor JP; Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
  • van den Brand J; Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
  • Wen CP; Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, The Ottawa Hospital, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
  • Woodward M; MRC Population Health Research Unit, Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford, United Kingdom.
  • Yang JW; AMGA (American Medical Group Association), Alexandria, Virginia and OptumLabs Visiting Fellow.
  • Wang AY; Clinical Epidemiology Team, Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP), University Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Inserm, Villejuif, France.
  • Tangri N; Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, Tennessee.
J Am Soc Nephrol ; 34(3): 482-494, 2023 03 01.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36857500
SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.
Asunto(s)

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Insuficiencia Renal / Insuficiencia Renal Crónica Tipo de estudio: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Aged / Humans Idioma: En Revista: J Am Soc Nephrol Asunto de la revista: NEFROLOGIA Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Insuficiencia Renal / Insuficiencia Renal Crónica Tipo de estudio: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Aged / Humans Idioma: En Revista: J Am Soc Nephrol Asunto de la revista: NEFROLOGIA Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos