Background: This study aims to identify the contexts, environments, and nurturing care predictors that determine whether a child is developmentally on track in Ceará, Brazil. Methods: We analysed data from a cross-sectional study conducted with caregivers of 6,447 children aged 0-59 months during a vaccination campaign in Ceará in October 2019. The validated Child Development Assessment Questionnaire was used to assess early childhood development (ECD) and children with a z-score ≥ -1 SD were considered developmentally on track. We conducted logistic regression models to understand the effects of contexts, environments, and nurturing care domains on ECD. Findings: Children in the early years (< 36 months) were more likely to meet the ECD milestones if they were not born with low birth weight (AOR: 0·64; 95% CI: 0·42-0·97), were exposed to manufactured toys in their house (2·68; 1·97-3·66), their heads of household were employed (1·61; 1·16-2·23), and their caregivers had read the Child Health Handbook (1·42; 1·13-1·77) and engaged them in stimulating activities (1·71; 1·26-2·32). Children aged 36-59 months were more likely to meet the ECD milestones if they were breastfed (never: ref. / < 3 months: 3·72; 1·91-7·26 / 3-5 months: 3·21; 1·74-5·93 / 6-11 months: 3·73; 1·95-7·16 / ≥ 12 months: 3·89; 2·25-6·72), had books at home (0: ref / 1-3: 1·71; 1·22-2·40 / 4-6: 2·24; 1·27-3·94 / 7+: 2·71; 1·05-7·00), and their caregivers received information about ECD (1·49; 1·11-2·01) and engaged them in stimulating activities (1·80; 1·27-2·56). Children aged 36-59 months were less likely to meet developmental milestones if they watched TV or used tablets/smartphones for more than two hours per day (0·61; 0·44-0·84), played with household objects (0·62; 0·41-0·92), participated in governmental early childhood programmes aimed at vulnerable families (0·62; 0·45-0·86), had families that participated in income transfer programmes (0·68; 0·47-0·99) (families living in poverty or extreme poverty), and their caregivers considered slapping (0·67; 0·48-0·94) a necessary disciplinary method. Interpretation: Having favourable socioeconomic conditions, breastfeeding, the absence of harsh discipline, caregivers who provide responsive care, and the provision of opportunities for early learning are the key factors that increase the likelihood of a child achieving their full developmental potential in Ceará, Brazil. Funding: This study was supported by the Maria Cecília Souto Vidigal Foundation (F0245), Brazil. The funder had no role in the design, analysis, or writing of this article.