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Predicting survival and neurological outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest using machine learning: the SCARS model.
Hessulf, Fredrik; Bhatt, Deepak L; Engdahl, Johan; Lundgren, Peter; Omerovic, Elmir; Rawshani, Aidin; Helleryd, Edvin; Dworeck, Christian; Friberg, Hans; Redfors, Björn; Nielsen, Niklas; Myredal, Anna; Frigyesi, Attila; Herlitz, Johan; Rawshani, Araz.
Afiliación
  • Hessulf F; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Mölndal, Sweden. Electronic address: fredrik.hessulf@gu.se.
  • Bhatt DL; Mount Sinai Heart, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Health System, New York, NY, USA.
  • Engdahl J; Karolinska Institutet, Department of Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital Danderyd, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Lundgren P; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Prehospen-Centre for Prehospital Research, University of Borås, Borås, Sweden; Department of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
  • Omerovic E; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; Wallenberg Laboratory for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Research, Institute of Medici
  • Rawshani A; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Wallenberg Laboratory for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Research, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; The Lundberg Laboratory for D
  • Helleryd E; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
  • Dworeck C; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
  • Friberg H; Department of Clinical Sciences, Anesthesia & Intensive Care, Lund University, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden.
  • Redfors B; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; Wallenberg Laboratory for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Research, Institute of Medici
  • Nielsen N; Department of Clinical Sciences, Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Helsingborg Hospital, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
  • Myredal A; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
  • Frigyesi A; Department of Clinical Medicine, Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Lund University, Lund, SE-22185, Sweden.
  • Herlitz J; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Prehospen-Centre for Prehospital Research, University of Borås, Borås, Sweden.
  • Rawshani A; Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; The Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Gothen
EBioMedicine ; 89: 104464, 2023 Mar.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36773348
BACKGROUND: A prediction model that estimates survival and neurological outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients has the potential to improve clinical management in emergency rooms. METHODS: We used the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation to study all out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases in Sweden from 2010 to 2020. We had 393 candidate predictors describing the circumstances at cardiac arrest, critical time intervals, patient demographics, initial presentation, spatiotemporal data, socioeconomic status, medications, and comorbidities before arrest. To develop, evaluate and test an array of prediction models, we created stratified (on the outcome measure) random samples of our study population. We created a training set (60% of data), evaluation set (20% of data), and test set (20% of data). We assessed the 30-day survival and cerebral performance category (CPC) score at discharge using several machine learning frameworks with hyperparameter tuning. Parsimonious models with the top 1 to 20 strongest predictors were tested. We calibrated the decision threshold to assess the cut-off yielding 95% sensitivity for survival. The final model was deployed as a web application. FINDINGS: We included 55,615 cases of OHCA. Initial presentation, prehospital interventions, and critical time intervals variables were the most important. At a sensitivity of 95%, specificity was 89%, positive predictive value 52%, and negative predictive value 99% in test data to predict 30-day survival. The area under the receiver characteristic curve was 0.97 in test data using all 393 predictors or only the ten most important predictors. The final model showed excellent calibration. The web application allowed for near-instantaneous survival calculations. INTERPRETATION: Thirty-day survival and neurological outcome in OHCA can rapidly and reliably be estimated during ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the emergency room using a machine learning model incorporating widely available variables. FUNDING: Swedish Research Council (2019-02019); Swedish state under the agreement between the Swedish government, and the county councils (ALFGBG-971482); The Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Reanimación Cardiopulmonar / Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: EBioMedicine Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Reanimación Cardiopulmonar / Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: EBioMedicine Año: 2023 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos