Differences in initial abundances reveal divergent dynamic structures in Gause's predator-prey experiments.
Ecol Evol
; 12(12): e9638, 2022 Dec.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36545367
Improved understanding of complex dynamics has revealed insights across many facets of ecology, and has enabled improved forecasts and management of future ecosystem states. However, an enduring challenge in forecasting complex dynamics remains the differentiation between complexity and stochasticity, that is, to determine whether declines in predictability are caused by stochasticity, nonlinearity, or chaos. Here, we show how to quantify the relative contributions of these factors to prediction error using Georgii Gause's iconic predator-prey microcosm experiments, which, critically, include experimental replicates that differ from one another only in initial abundances. We show that these differences in initial abundances interact with stochasticity, nonlinearity, and chaos in unique ways, allowing us to identify the impacts of these factors on prediction error. Our results suggest that jointly analyzing replicate time series across multiple, distinct starting points may be necessary for understanding and predicting the wide range of potential dynamic types in complex ecological systems.
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1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Ecol Evol
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Reino Unido