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Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios.
Noël, Brice; Lenaerts, Jan T M; Lipscomb, William H; Thayer-Calder, Katherine; van den Broeke, Michiel R.
Afiliación
  • Noël B; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands. b.p.y.noel@uu.nl.
  • Lenaerts JTM; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Lipscomb WH; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Thayer-Calder K; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • van den Broeke MR; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 6870, 2022 Nov 11.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36369265
Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90[Formula: see text] of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries of cold summers would be required to rebuild the firn buffer. Here we estimate the warming required for GrIS firn to reach peak refreezing, using 51 climate simulations statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution, that project the long-term firn layer evolution under multiple emission scenarios (1850-2300). We predict that refreezing stabilises under low warming scenarios, whereas under extreme warming, refreezing could peak and permanently decline starting in southwest Greenland by 2100, and further expanding GrIS-wide in the early 22[Formula: see text] century. After passing this peak, the GrIS contribution to global sea level rise would increase over twenty-fold compared to the last three decades.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Países Bajos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Países Bajos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido