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Early estimates of the incidence trend and the reproductive number of the monkeypox epidemic in Brazil.
Schrarstzhaupt, Isaac N; Fontes-Dutra, Mellanie; Diaz-Quijano, Fredi Alexander.
Afiliación
  • Schrarstzhaupt IN; Capixaba Health Teaching, Research, and Innovation Institute (ICEPi), Brazil. Electronic address: isaacjesus@gmail.com.
  • Fontes-Dutra M; University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS), School of Health, Rio Grande do Sul, RS, Brazil.
  • Diaz-Quijano FA; University of São Paulo, School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology - Laboratory of Causal Inference in Epidemiology (LINCE-USP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Travel Med Infect Dis ; 50: 102484, 2022.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36342036
BACKGROUND: We aimed to calculate the weekly growth of the incidence and the effective reproductive number (Rt) of the 2022 Monkeypox epidemic during its introduction in Brazil. METHOD: We described the case distribution in the country and calculated the incidence trend and the Rt in the four geographical states with the highest case reports. By using two regression approaches, count model and the Prais-Winsten, we calculated the relative incidence increase. Moreover, we estimated the Rt for the period between the 24th and the 50th days after the first official report, using a serial interval reported in another population and two alternative values (± 3 days). RESULTS: Up to August 22, 3.896 Monkeypox cases were confirmed in Brazil. The weekly incidence increases were between 37.5% (95% CI: 20.7% - 56,6%) and 82.1% (95% CI: 59.5%-107.8%), and all estimates of Rt were significantly higher than 1 in the four states analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: The Monkeypox outbreak in Brazil is a significant public health emergency that requires coordinated public health strategies such as testing, contact tracing, and vaccination.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Mpox / Epidemias Tipo de estudio: Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Travel Med Infect Dis Asunto de la revista: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Mpox / Epidemias Tipo de estudio: Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Travel Med Infect Dis Asunto de la revista: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos