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Vaccine efficacy trials for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever: Insights from modelling different epidemiological settings.
Vesga, Juan F; Métras, Raphaelle; Clark, Madeleine H A; Ayazi, Edris; Apolloni, Andrea; Leslie, Toby; Msimang, Veerle; Thompson, Peter N; John Edmunds, W.
Afiliación
  • Vesga JF; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: juan.vesga-gaviria@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Métras R; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Épidémiolo
  • Clark MHA; Integrated Understanding of Health, Research Strategy and Programmes, Biotechnology and Biosciences Research Council, Swindon, UK.
  • Ayazi E; Ministry of Public Health, Massoud Square, Kabul, Afghanistan.
  • Apolloni A; CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France; ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, Montpellier, France.
  • Leslie T; International Health, Mott MacDonald, UK.
  • Msimang V; Epidemiology Section, Department of Production Animal Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort, South Africa; Centre for Emerging Zoonotic and Parasitic Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Sandringham,
  • Thompson PN; Epidemiology Section, Department of Production Animal Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort, South Africa.
  • John Edmunds W; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Vaccine ; 40(40): 5806-5813, 2022 09 22.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36058795
BACKGROUND: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a priority emerging pathogen for which a licensed vaccine is not yet available. We aim to assess the feasibility of conducting phase III vaccine efficacy trials and the role of varying transmission dynamics. METHODS: We calibrate models of CCHF virus (CCHFV) transmission among livestock and spillover to humans in endemic areas in Afghanistan, Turkey and South Africa. We propose an individual randomised controlled trial targeted to high-risk population, and use the calibrated models to simulate trial cohorts to estimate the minimum necessary number of cases (trial endpoints) to analyse a vaccine with a minimum efficacy of 60%, under different conditions of sample size and follow-up time in the three selected settings. RESULTS: A mean follow-up of 160,000 person-month (75,000-550,000) would be necessary to accrue the required 150 trial endpoints for a target vaccine efficacy of 60 % and clinically defined endpoint, in a setting like Herat, Afghanistan. For Turkey, the same would be achieved with a mean follow-up of 175,000 person-month (50,000-350,000). The results suggest that for South Africa the low endemic transmission levels will not permit achieving the necessary conditions for conducting this trial within a realistic follow-up time. In the scenario of CCHFV vaccine trial designed to capture infection as opposed to clinical case as a trial endpoint, the required person-months is reduced by 70 % to 80 % in Afghanistan and Turkey, and in South Africa, a trial becomes feasible for a large number of person-months of follow-up (>600,000). Increased expected vaccine efficacy > 60 % will reduce the required number of trial endpoints and thus the sample size and follow-time in phase III trials. CONCLUSIONS: Underlying endemic transmission levels will play a central role in defining the feasibility of phase III vaccine efficacy trials. Endemic settings in Afghanistan and Turkey offer conditions under which such studies could feasibly be conducted.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Vacunas / Virus de la Fiebre Hemorrágica de Crimea-Congo / Fiebre Hemorrágica de Crimea Tipo de estudio: Clinical_trials Límite: Animals / Humans Idioma: En Revista: Vaccine Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Vacunas / Virus de la Fiebre Hemorrágica de Crimea-Congo / Fiebre Hemorrágica de Crimea Tipo de estudio: Clinical_trials Límite: Animals / Humans Idioma: En Revista: Vaccine Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Países Bajos