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Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia.
Chai, Yuanfang; Yue, Yao; Slater, Louise J; Yin, Jiabo; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Chen, Tiexi; Wang, Guojie.
Afiliación
  • Chai Y; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China.
  • Yue Y; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
  • Slater LJ; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China. yueyao@whu.edu.cn.
  • Yin J; Institute for Water-Carbon Cycles & Carbon Neutrality, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China. yueyao@whu.edu.cn.
  • Borthwick AGL; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom.
  • Chen T; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China.
  • Wang G; Institute for Infrastructure and Environment, School of Engineering, The University of Edinburgh, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JL, UK.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 4124, 2022 07 15.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35840591
Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world's population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970-2014) and precipitation (2015-2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1-31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year-1 (29.36 mm °C-1, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year-1 (20.03 mm °C-1, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year-1 (17.96 mm °C-1, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year-1 (17.28 mm °C-1, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0-14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4-11.6% and -2.1-13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5-40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cambio Climático / Agua Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cambio Climático / Agua Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido