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Seasonality of influenza and coseasonality with avian influenza in Bangladesh, 2010-19: a retrospective, time-series analysis.
Berry, Isha; Rahman, Mahbubur; Flora, Meerjady Sabrina; Shirin, Tahmina; Alamgir, A S M; Khan, Manjur Hossain; Anwar, Rubaid; Lisa, Mona; Chowdhury, Fahmida; Islam, Md Ariful; Osmani, Muzzafar G; Dunkle, Stacie; Brum, Eric; Greer, Amy L; Morris, Shaun K; Mangtani, Punam; Fisman, David N.
Afiliación
  • Berry I; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Electronic address: isha.berry@mail.utoronto.ca.
  • Rahman M; Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Flora MS; Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh; Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Shirin T; Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Alamgir ASM; Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Khan MH; Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Anwar R; Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Lisa M; Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Chowdhury F; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Islam MA; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Osmani MG; Department of Livestock Services, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Dunkle S; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Brum E; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Greer AL; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada.
  • Morris SK; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Infectious Diseases, Center for Global Child Health, and Child Health Evaluative Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada.
  • Mangtani P; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Fisman DN; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Lancet Glob Health ; 10(8): e1150-e1158, 2022 08.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35709796
BACKGROUND: Seasonal and avian influenza viruses circulate among human and poultry populations in Bangladesh. However, the epidemiology of influenza is not well defined in this setting. We aimed to characterise influenza seasonality, examine regional heterogeneity in transmission, and evaluate coseasonality between circulating influenza viruses in Bangladesh. METHODS: In this retrospective, time-series study, we used data collected between January, 2010, and December, 2019, from 32 hospital-based influenza surveillance sites across Bangladesh. We estimated influenza peak timing and intensity in ten regions using negative binomial harmonic regression models, and applied meta-analytic methods to determine whether seasonality differed across regions. Using live bird market surveillance data in Dhaka, Bangladesh, we estimated avian influenza seasonality and examined coseasonality between human and avian influenza viruses. FINDINGS: Over the 10-year study period, we included 8790 human influenza cases and identified a distinct influenza season, with an annual peak in June to July each year (peak calendar week 27·6, 95% CI 26·7-28·6). Epidemic timing varied by region (I2=93·9%; p<0·0001), with metropolitan regions peaking earlier and epidemic spread following a spatial diffusion pattern based on geographical proximity. Comparatively, avian influenza displayed weak seasonality, with moderate year-round transmission and a small peak in April (peak calendar week 14·9, 95% CI 13·2-17·0), which was out of phase with influenza peaks in humans. INTERPRETATION: In Bangladesh, influenza prevention and control activities could be timed with annual seasonality, and regional heterogeneity should be considered in health resource planning. Year-round avian influenza transmission poses a risk for viral spillover, and targeted efforts will be crucial for mitigating potential reassortment and future pandemic threats. FUNDING: Canadian Institute of Health Research Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship.
Asunto(s)

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Virus de la Influenza A / Gripe Humana / Gripe Aviar Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Animals / Humans País/Región como asunto: America do norte / Asia Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Glob Health Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Virus de la Influenza A / Gripe Humana / Gripe Aviar Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Animals / Humans País/Región como asunto: America do norte / Asia Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Glob Health Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido