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SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.
Bubar, Kate M; Middleton, Casey E; Bjorkman, Kristen K; Parker, Roy; Larremore, Daniel B.
Afiliación
  • Bubar KM; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Middleton CE; Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Bjorkman KK; BioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Parker R; BioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  • Larremore DB; Department of Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 2777, 2022 05 19.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35589681
Screening programs that test only the unvaccinated population have been proposed and implemented to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread, implicitly assuming that the unvaccinated population drives transmission. To evaluate this premise and quantify the impact of unvaccinated-only screening programs, we introduce a model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through which we explore a range of transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness scenarios, rates of prior infection, and screening programs. We find that, as vaccination rates increase, the proportion of transmission driven by the unvaccinated population decreases, such that most community spread is driven by vaccine-breakthrough infections once vaccine coverage exceeds 55% (omicron) or 80% (delta), points which shift lower as vaccine effectiveness wanes. Thus, we show that as vaccination rates increase, the transmission reductions associated with unvaccinated-only screening decline, identifying three distinct categories of impact on infections and hospitalizations. More broadly, these results demonstrate that effective unvaccinated-only screening depends on population immunity, vaccination rates, and variant.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Screening_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Screening_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido