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Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk.
Carlson, Colin J; Albery, Gregory F; Merow, Cory; Trisos, Christopher H; Zipfel, Casey M; Eskew, Evan A; Olival, Kevin J; Ross, Noam; Bansal, Shweta.
Afiliación
  • Carlson CJ; Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. colin.carlson@georgetown.edu.
  • Albery GF; Center for Global Health Science & Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. colin.carlson@georgetown.edu.
  • Merow C; Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. gfalbery@gmail.com.
  • Trisos CH; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA. gfalbery@gmail.com.
  • Zipfel CM; Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.
  • Eskew EA; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
  • Olival KJ; Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
  • Ross N; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
  • Bansal S; Department of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA.
Nature ; 607(7919): 555-562, 2022 07.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35483403
At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Virus / Cambio Climático / Zoonosis Virales / Mamíferos Tipo de estudio: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Animals / Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nature Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Virus / Cambio Climático / Zoonosis Virales / Mamíferos Tipo de estudio: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Animals / Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nature Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido