Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
The path towards herd immunity: Predicting COVID-19 vaccination uptake through results from a stated choice study across six continents.
Hess, Stephane; Lancsar, Emily; Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen; Song, Fangqing; van den Broek-Altenburg, Eline; Alaba, Olufunke A; Amaris, Gloria; Arellana, Julián; Basso, Leonardo J; Benson, Jamie; Bravo-Moncayo, Luis; Chanel, Olivier; Choi, Syngjoo; Crastes Dit Sourd, Romain; Cybis, Helena Bettella; Dorner, Zack; Falco, Paolo; Garzón-Pérez, Luis; Glass, Kathryn; Guzman, Luis A; Huang, Zhiran; Huynh, Elisabeth; Kim, Bongseop; Konstantinus, Abisai; Konstantinus, Iyaloo; Larranaga, Ana Margarita; Longo, Alberto; Loo, Becky P Y; Oehlmann, Malte; O'Neill, Vikki; de Dios Ortúzar, Juan; Sanz, María José; Sarmiento, Olga L; Moyo, Hazvinei Tamuka; Tucker, Steven; Wang, Yacan; Wang, Yu; Webb, Edward J D; Zhang, Junyi; Zuidgeest, Mark H P.
Afiliación
  • Hess S; University of Leeds, United Kingdom. Electronic address: s.hess@leeds.ac.uk.
  • Lancsar E; Australian National University, Australia. Electronic address: Emily.Lancsar@anu.edu.au.
  • Mariel P; University of the Basque Country, Spain. Electronic address: petr.mariel@ehu.eus.
  • Meyerhoff J; Technische Universität Berlin, Germany. Electronic address: juergen.meyerhoff@tu-berlin.de.
  • Song F; University of Leeds, United Kingdom; University College London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: f.song1@leeds.ac.uk.
  • van den Broek-Altenburg E; University of Vermont, United States. Electronic address: eline.altenburg@med.uvm.edu.
  • Alaba OA; University of Cape Town, South Africa.
  • Amaris G; University of Leeds, United Kingdom; Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
  • Arellana J; Universidad del Norte, Colombia.
  • Basso LJ; Universidad de Chile, Chile.
  • Benson J; University of Vermont, United States.
  • Bravo-Moncayo L; Universidad de Las Américas, Ecuador; Universidad Técnica del Norte, Ecuador.
  • Chanel O; Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.
  • Choi S; Seoul National University, South Korea.
  • Crastes Dit Sourd R; University of Leeds, United Kingdom.
  • Cybis HB; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
  • Dorner Z; University of Waikato, New Zealand.
  • Falco P; University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
  • Garzón-Pérez L; Universidad Técnica del Norte, Ecuador.
  • Glass K; Australian National University, Australia.
  • Guzman LA; Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia.
  • Huang Z; The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
  • Huynh E; Australian National University, Australia.
  • Kim B; Seoul National University, South Korea.
  • Konstantinus A; Ndatara surveys, Namibia.
  • Konstantinus I; Namibia Institute of Pathology, Namibia.
  • Larranaga AM; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
  • Longo A; Queen's University Belfast, United Kingdom.
  • Loo BPY; The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
  • Oehlmann M; Chair of Marketing and Consumer Research, TUM School of Management, Technical University of Munich, Germany.
  • O'Neill V; Queen's University Belfast, United Kingdom.
  • de Dios Ortúzar J; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Chile.
  • Sanz MJ; BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change, Spain; Ikerbasque Foundation, Spain.
  • Sarmiento OL; Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia.
  • Moyo HT; University of Cape Town, South Africa.
  • Tucker S; University of Waikato, New Zealand.
  • Wang Y; Beijing Jiaotong University, China.
  • Wang Y; Beijing Jiaotong University, China.
  • Webb EJD; University of Leeds, United Kingdom.
  • Zhang J; Hiroshima University, Japan.
  • Zuidgeest MHP; University of Cape Town, South Africa.
Soc Sci Med ; 298: 114800, 2022 04.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35287066
Despite unprecedented progress in developing COVID-19 vaccines, global vaccination levels needed to reach herd immunity remain a distant target, while new variants keep emerging. Obtaining near universal vaccine uptake relies on understanding and addressing vaccine resistance. Simple questions about vaccine acceptance however ignore that the vaccines being offered vary across countries and even population subgroups, and differ in terms of efficacy and side effects. By using advanced discrete choice models estimated on stated choice data collected in 18 countries/territories across six continents, we show a substantial influence of vaccine characteristics. Uptake increases if more efficacious vaccines (95% vs 60%) are offered (mean across study areas = 3.9%, range of 0.6%-8.1%) or if vaccines offer at least 12 months of protection (mean across study areas = 2.4%, range of 0.2%-5.8%), while an increase in severe side effects (from 0.001% to 0.01%) leads to reduced uptake (mean = -1.3%, range of -0.2% to -3.9%). Additionally, a large share of individuals (mean = 55.2%, range of 28%-75.8%) would delay vaccination by 3 months to obtain a more efficacious (95% vs 60%) vaccine, where this increases further if the low efficacy vaccine has a higher risk (0.01% instead of 0.001%) of severe side effects (mean = 65.9%, range of 41.4%-86.5%). Our work highlights that careful consideration of which vaccines to offer can be beneficial. In support of this, we provide an interactive tool to predict uptake in a country as a function of the vaccines being deployed, and also depending on the levels of infectiousness and severity of circulating variants of COVID-19.
Asunto(s)
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Vacunas / COVID-19 Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Soc Sci Med Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Vacunas / COVID-19 Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Soc Sci Med Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido