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Estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C: A modelling study in Yichang City, China.
Wang, Yao; Zhao, Zeyu; Zhang, Hao; Lin, Qin; Wang, Ning; Ngwanguong Hannah, Mikah; Rui, Jia; Yang, Tianlong; Li, Peihua; Mao, Siying; Lin, Shengnan; Liu, Xingchun; Zhu, Yuanzhao; Xu, Jingwen; Yang, Meng; Luo, Li; Liu, Chan; Li, Zhuoyang; Deng, Bin; Huang, Jiefeng; Liu, Weikang; Zhao, Benhua; Su, Yanhua; Chen, Tianmu.
Afiliación
  • Wang Y; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Zhao Z; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Zhang H; Yichang municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang City, China.
  • Lin Q; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Wang N; Shenzhen Heng Sheng Hospital, Shenzhen City, China.
  • Ngwanguong Hannah M; Medical College, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Rui J; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Yang T; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Li P; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Mao S; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Lin S; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Liu X; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Zhu Y; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Xu J; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Yang M; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Luo L; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Liu C; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Li Z; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Deng B; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Huang J; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Liu W; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Zhao B; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Su Y; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
  • Chen T; State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, China.
J Viral Hepat ; 28(10): 1464-1473, 2021 10.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34314082
Yichang is a city in central China in the Hubei Province. This study aimed to estimate the dynamics of the transmissibility of hepatitis C using a mathematical model and predict the transmissibility of hepatitis C in 2030. Data of hepatitis C cases from 13 counties or districts (cities) in Yichang from 2008 to 2016 were collected. A susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was developed to fit the data. The transmissibility of hepatitis C at the counties or districts was calculated based on new infections (including infected or chronically infected cases) reported monthly in the city caused by one infectious individual (MNI). The trend of the MNI was fitted and predicted using 11 models, with the coefficient of determination (R2 ) was being used to test the goodness of fit of these models. A total of 3065 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Yichang from 2008 to 2016. The median MNI of Yichang was 0.0768. According to the fitting results and analysis, the trend of transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang City conforms with the logarithmic (R2  = 0.918, p < 0.001):MNI = 0.265-0.108 log(t) and exponential (R2  = 0.939, p < 0.001): MNI = 0.344e(-0.278t) models. Hence, the transmission of hepatitis C virus at the county level has a downward trend. In conclusion, the transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang has a downward trend. With the current preventive and control measures in place, the spread of hepatitis C can be controlled.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Hepatitis C / Hepacivirus Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: J Viral Hepat Asunto de la revista: GASTROENTEROLOGIA Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
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XML
PubMed Links
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Hepatitis C / Hepacivirus Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: J Viral Hepat Asunto de la revista: GASTROENTEROLOGIA Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido