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Impact of visitation and cohorting policies to shield residents from covid-19 spread in care homes: an agent-based model.
Nguyen, Le Khanh Ngan; Howick, Susan; McLafferty, Dennis; Anderson, Gillian Hopkins; Pravinkumar, Sahaya Josephine; Van Der Meer, Robert; Megiddo, Itamar.
Afiliación
  • Nguyen LKN; Department of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom. Electronic address: nguyen-le-khanh-ngan@strath.ac.uk.
  • Howick S; Department of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
  • McLafferty D; Adult Services, Health & Social Care North Lanarkshire, Motherwell, United Kingdom.
  • Anderson GH; Department of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
  • Pravinkumar SJ; Department of Public Health, National Health Services Lanarkshire, Kirklands Hospital, Bothwell, United Kingdom.
  • Van Der Meer R; Department of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
  • Megiddo I; Department of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Am J Infect Control ; 49(9): 1105-1112, 2021 09.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34245814
BACKGROUND: This study examines the impact of visitation and cohorting policies as well as the care home population size upon the spread of COVID-19 and the risk of outbreak occurrence in this setting. METHODS: Agent-based modelling RESULTS: The likelihood of the presence of an outbreak in a care home is associated with the care home population size. Cohorting of residents and staff into smaller, self-contained units reduces the spread of COVID-19. Restricting the number of visitors to the care home to shield its residents does not significantly impact the cumulative number of infected residents and risk of outbreak occurrence in most scenarios. Only when the community prevalence where staff live is considerably lower than the prevalence where visitors live (the former prevalence is less than or equal to 30% of the latter), relaxing visitation increases predicted infections much more significantly than it does in other scenarios. Maintaining a low infection probability per resident-visitor contact helps reduce the effect of allowing more visitors into care homes. CONCLUSIONS: Our model predictions suggest that cohorting is effective in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in care homes. However, according to predictions shielding residents in care homes is not as effective as predicted in a number of studies that have modelled shielding of vulnerable population in the wider communities.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Visitas a Pacientes / COVID-19 / Casas de Salud Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Am J Infect Control Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
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Imprimir
XML
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Visitas a Pacientes / COVID-19 / Casas de Salud Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Am J Infect Control Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos