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Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case.
Candel, Francisco Javier; Viayna, Elisabet; Callejo, Daniel; Ramos, Raul; San-Roman-Montero, Jesús; Barreiro, Pablo; Carretero, María Del Mar; Kolipinski, Adam; Canora, Jesus; Zapatero, Antonio; Runken, Michael Chris.
Afiliación
  • Candel FJ; Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Hospital Clínico San Carlos, IdISSC and IML Health Institutes, Council of Public Health, Prof Martín Lagos, s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
  • Viayna E; Scientific & Medical Affairs, Global Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Grifols S.A., Av. Generalitat, 152 (SC3), Sant Cugat del Vallès, 08174 Barcelona, Spain.
  • Callejo D; Health Economics and Outcomes Research, IQVIA, Juan Esplandiú, 11, 28007 Madrid, Spain.
  • Ramos R; AQR-IREA, Deptment of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690-696, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
  • San-Roman-Montero J; Department of Medical Specialties and Public Health, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avenida de Atenas s/n, Alcorcón, 28922 Madrid, Spain.
  • Barreiro P; Department of Infectious Diseases, Internal Medicine, Hospital La Paz, Council of Public Health, European University of Madrid, Paseo de la Castellana, 261, 28046 Madrid, Spain.
  • Carretero MDM; Public Health Laboratory, Council of Public Health, Calle Sierra de Alquife, 8, 28053 Madrid, Spain.
  • Kolipinski A; Software Development Stat Services, IQVIA Commercial sp. z o.o., Domaniewska 48, 02-672 Warsaw, Poland.
  • Canora J; Health Council, Community of Madrid, Madrid, C/O'Donnell, 55, 4th Floor, 28009 Madrid, Spain.
  • Zapatero A; Health Council, Community of Madrid, Madrid, C/O'Donnell, 55, 4th Floor, 28009 Madrid, Spain.
  • Runken MC; Scientific & Medical Affairs, Global Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Grifols SSNA, 79 TW Alexander Dr Bldg. 4101, Durham, NC 27713, USA.
Viruses ; 13(5)2021 05 15.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34063465
The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles / Pandemias / COVID-19 / Política de Salud Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Health_economic_evaluation / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Aspecto: Determinantes_sociais_saude Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: Viruses Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: España Pais de publicación: Suiza
Texto completo
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XML
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles / Pandemias / COVID-19 / Política de Salud Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Health_economic_evaluation / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Aspecto: Determinantes_sociais_saude Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: Viruses Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: España Pais de publicación: Suiza