Ecological and biogeographic drivers of biodiversity cannot be resolved using clade age-richness data.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 2945, 2021 05 19.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34011982
Estimates of evolutionary diversification rates - speciation and extinction - have been used extensively to explain global biodiversity patterns. Many studies have analyzed diversification rates derived from just two pieces of information: a clade's age and its extant species richness. This "age-richness rate" (ARR) estimator provides a convenient shortcut for comparative studies, but makes strong assumptions about the dynamics of species richness through time. Here we demonstrate that use of the ARR estimator in comparative studies is problematic on both theoretical and empirical grounds. We prove mathematically that ARR estimates are non-identifiable: there is no information in the data for a single clade that can distinguish a process with positive net diversification from one where net diversification is zero. Using paleontological time series, we demonstrate that the ARR estimator has no predictive ability for real datasets. These pathologies arise because the ARR inference procedure yields "point estimates" that have been computed under a saturated statistical model with zero degrees of freedom. Although ARR estimates remain useful in some contexts, they should be avoided for comparative studies of diversification and species richness.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Ecosistema
/
Biodiversidad
/
Evolución Biológica
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos
Pais de publicación:
Reino Unido