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Evaluation of multi-hazard map produced using MaxEnt machine learning technique.
Javidan, Narges; Kavian, Ataollah; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Conoscenti, Christian; Jafarian, Zeinab; Rodrigo-Comino, Jesús.
Afiliación
  • Javidan N; Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University (SANRU), Sari, 48441-74111, Iran.
  • Kavian A; Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University (SANRU), Sari, 48441-74111, Iran. a.kavian@sanru.ac.ir.
  • Pourghasemi HR; Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, 71441- 65186, Iran.
  • Conoscenti C; Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DISTEM), University of Palermo, Palermo, 90123, Italy.
  • Jafarian Z; Department of Range Management, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University (SANRU), Sari, 48441-74111, Iran.
  • Rodrigo-Comino J; Department of Physical Geography, University of Trier, 54296, Trier, Germany. rodrigo@uni-trier.de.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 6496, 2021 03 22.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33753798
Natural hazards are diverse and uneven in time and space, therefore, understanding its complexity is key to save human lives and conserve natural ecosystems. Reducing the outputs obtained after each modelling analysis is key to present the results for stakeholders, land managers and policymakers. So, the main goal of this survey was to present a method to synthesize three natural hazards in one multi-hazard map and its evaluation for hazard management and land use planning. To test this methodology, we took as study area the Gorganrood Watershed, located in the Golestan Province (Iran). First, an inventory map of three different types of hazards including flood, landslides, and gullies was prepared using field surveys and different official reports. To generate the susceptibility maps, a total of 17 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) machine learning technique. The accuracy of the predictive models was evaluated by drawing receiver operating characteristic-ROC curves and calculating the area under the ROC curve-AUCROC. The MaxEnt model not only implemented superbly in the degree of fitting, but also obtained significant results in predictive performance. Variables importance of the three studied types of hazards showed that river density, distance from streams, and elevation were the most important factors for flood, respectively. Lithological units, elevation, and annual mean rainfall were relevant for detecting landslides. On the other hand, annual mean rainfall, elevation, and lithological units were used for gully erosion mapping in this study area. Finally, by combining the flood, landslides, and gully erosion susceptibility maps, an integrated multi-hazard map was created. The results demonstrated that 60% of the area is subjected to hazards, reaching a proportion of landslides up to 21.2% in the whole territory. We conclude that using this type of multi-hazard map may be a useful tool for local administrators to identify areas susceptible to hazards at large scales as we demonstrated in this research.

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Revista: Sci Rep Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Irán Pais de publicación: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Revista: Sci Rep Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Irán Pais de publicación: Reino Unido