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Megacities as drivers of national outbreaks: The 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Mahmud, Ayesha S; Kabir, Md Iqbal; Engø-Monsen, Kenth; Tahmina, Sania; Riaz, Baizid Khoorshid; Hossain, Md Akram; Khanom, Fahmida; Rahman, Md Mujibor; Rahman, Md Khalilur; Sharmin, Mehruba; Hossain, Dewan Mashrur; Yasmin, Shakila; Ahmed, Md Mokhtar; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Buckee, Caroline O.
Afiliación
  • Mahmud AS; Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
  • Kabir MI; Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
  • Engø-Monsen K; National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Tahmina S; Directorate General of Health Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Riaz BK; Telenor Research, Telenor Group, Fornebu, Norway.
  • Hossain MA; Directorate General of Health Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Khanom F; National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Rahman MM; National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Rahman MK; National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Sharmin M; Dhaka Medical College Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Hossain DM; Directorate General of Health Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Yasmin S; Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Ahmed MM; Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Lusha MAF; Bangladesh Climate Change Trust, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Buckee CO; Bangladesh Climate Change Trust, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(2): e0009106, 2021 02.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33529229
BACKGROUND: Several large outbreaks of chikungunya have been reported in the Indian Ocean region in the last decade. In 2017, an outbreak occurred in Dhaka, Bangladesh, one of the largest and densest megacities in the world. Population mobility and fluctuations in population density are important drivers of epidemics. Measuring population mobility during outbreaks is challenging but is a particularly important goal in the context of rapidly growing and highly connected cities in low- and middle-income countries, which can act to amplify and spread local epidemics nationally and internationally. METHODS: We first describe the epidemiology of the 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka and estimate incidence using a mechanistic model of chikungunya transmission parametrized with epidemiological data from a household survey. We combine the modeled dynamics of chikungunya in Dhaka, with mobility estimates derived from mobile phone data for over 4 million subscribers, to understand the role of population mobility on the spatial spread of chikungunya within and outside Dhaka during the 2017 outbreak. RESULTS: We estimate a much higher incidence of chikungunya in Dhaka than suggested by official case counts. Vector abundance, local demographics, and population mobility were associated with spatial heterogeneities in incidence in Dhaka. The peak of the outbreak in Dhaka coincided with the annual Eid holidays, during which large numbers of people traveled from Dhaka to other parts of the country. We show that travel during Eid likely resulted in the spread of the infection to the rest of the country. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the impact of large-scale population movements, for example during holidays, on the spread of infectious diseases. These dynamics are difficult to capture using traditional approaches, and we compare our results to a standard diffusion model, to highlight the value of real-time data from mobile phones for outbreak analysis, forecasting, and surveillance.
Asunto(s)

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Brotes de Enfermedades / Fiebre Chikungunya Tipo de estudio: Prevalence_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Asunto de la revista: MEDICINA TROPICAL Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Brotes de Enfermedades / Fiebre Chikungunya Tipo de estudio: Prevalence_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Asunto de la revista: MEDICINA TROPICAL Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos