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Prediction of patients requiring intensive care for COVID-19: development and validation of an integer-based score using data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of South Korea.
Heo, JoonNyung; Han, Deokjae; Kim, Hyung-Jun; Kim, Daehyun; Lee, Yeon-Kyeng; Lim, Dosang; Hong, Sung Ok; Park, Mi-Jin; Ha, Beomman; Seog, Woong.
Afiliación
  • Heo J; The Armed Forces Medical Command, Ministry of National Defense, 81, Saemaeul-ro 177, Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Han D; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, The Armed Forces Capital Hospital, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Kim HJ; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, The Armed Forces Capital Hospital, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Kim D; Department of Periodontology, The Armed Forces Capital Hospital, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Lee YK; Division of Chronic Disease Control, Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Lim D; Division of Chronic Disease Control, Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Hong SO; Division of Chronic Disease Control, Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Park MJ; Division of Chronic Disease Control, Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Ha B; The Armed Forces Medical Command, Ministry of National Defense, 81, Saemaeul-ro 177, Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
  • Seog W; The Armed Forces Medical Command, Ministry of National Defense, 81, Saemaeul-ro 177, Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea. drscopy@naver.com.
J Intensive Care ; 9(1): 16, 2021 Jan 29.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33514443
BACKGROUND: Unavailability or saturation of the intensive care unit may be associated with the fatality of COVID-19. Prioritizing the patients for hospitalization and intensive care may be critical for reducing the fatality of COVID-19. This study aimed to develop and validate a new integer-based scoring system for predicting patients with COVID-19 requiring intensive care, using only the predictors available upon triage. METHODS: This is a retrospective study using cohort data from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that included all admitted patients with COVID-19 between January 19 and June 3, 2020, in South Korea. The primary outcome was patients requiring intensive care defined as actual admission to the intensive care unit; at any time use of an extracorporeal life support device, mechanical ventilation, or vasopressors; and death. Patients admitted until March 20 were included for the training dataset to develop the prediction models and externally validated for the patients admitted afterward. Two logistic regression models were developed with different predictors and the predictive performance was compared: one with patient-provided variables and the other with added radiologic and laboratory variables. An integer-based scoring system was developed based on the developed logistic regression model. RESULTS: A total of 5193 patients were considered, with 4663 patients included after excluding patients with age under 18 or insufficient data. For the training dataset, 3238 patients were included. Of the included patients, 444 (9.5%) patients required intensive care. The model developed with only the clinical variables showed an area under the curve of 0.884 for the validation set. The performance did not differ when radiologic and laboratory variables were added. Seven variables were selected for developing an integer-based scoring system: age, sex, initial body temperature, dyspnea, hemoptysis, history of chronic kidney disease, and activities of daily living. The area under the curve of the scoring system was 0.880. CONCLUSIONS: An integer-based scoring system was developed for predicting patients with COVID-19 requiring intensive care, with high performance. This system may aid decision support for prioritizing the patient for hospitalization and intensive care, particularly in a situation with limited medical resources.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Aspecto: Patient_preference Idioma: En Revista: J Intensive Care Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Aspecto: Patient_preference Idioma: En Revista: J Intensive Care Año: 2021 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido