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Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters.
Siraj, Amir; Worku, Alemayehu; Berhane, Kiros; Aregawi, Maru; Eshetu, Munir; Mirkuzie, Alemnesh; Berhane, Yemane; Siraj, Dawd.
Afiliación
  • Siraj A; Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA.
  • Worku A; Notre Dame Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA.
  • Berhane K; Department of Preventive Medicine, Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Aregawi M; Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
  • Eshetu M; Global Malaria Program, World Health Organization, Geneve, Switzerland.
  • Mirkuzie A; COVID-19 and Essential Health Care, Ethiopia Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Berhane Y; National Data Managment Center for Health, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Siraj D; Department of Epidemiology, Addis Continental Institute of Public Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
BMJ Glob Health ; 5(9)2020 09.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32948617
INTRODUCTION: Since its emergence in late December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic in mid of March with many countries suffering heavy human loss and declaring emergency conditions to contain its spread. The impact of the disease, while it has been relatively low in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as of May 2020, is feared to be potentially devastating given the less developed and fragmented healthcare system in the continent. In addition, most emergency measures practised may not be effective due to their limited affordability as well as the communal way people in SSA live in relative isolation in clusters of large as well as smaller population centres. METHODS: To address the acute need for estimates of the potential impacts of the disease once it sweeps through the African region, we developed a process-based model with key parameters obtained from recent studies, taking local context into consideration. We further used the model to estimate the number of infections within a year of sustained local transmissions under scenarios that cover different population sizes, urban status, effectiveness and coverage of social distancing, contact tracing and usage of cloth face mask. RESULTS: We showed that when implemented early, 50% coverage of contact tracing and face mask, with 33% effective social distancing policies can bringing the epidemic to a manageable level for all population sizes and settings we assessed. Relaxing of social distancing in urban settings from 33% to 25% could be matched by introduction and maintenance of face mask use at 43%. CONCLUSIONS: In SSA countries with limited healthcare workforce, hospital resources and intensive care units, a robust system of social distancing, contact tracing and face mask use could yield in outcomes that prevent several millions of infections and thousands of deaths across the continent.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Neumonía Viral / Infecciones por Coronavirus / Pandemias / COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: En Revista: BMJ Glob Health Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Neumonía Viral / Infecciones por Coronavirus / Pandemias / COVID-19 Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: En Revista: BMJ Glob Health Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido