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Potential impact of missing outcome data on treatment effects in systematic reviews: imputation study.
Kahale, Lara A; Khamis, Assem M; Diab, Batoul; Chang, Yaping; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Agarwal, Arnav; Li, Ling; Mustafa, Reem A; Koujanian, Serge; Waziry, Reem; Busse, Jason W; Dakik, Abeer; Schünemann, Holger J; Hooft, Lotty; Scholten, Rob Jpm; Guyatt, Gordon H; Akl, Elie A.
Afiliación
  • Kahale LA; Department of Internal Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, PO Box 11-0236, Riad-El-Solh Beirut 1107 2020, Beirut, Lebanon.
  • Khamis AM; Cochrane Netherlands and Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
  • Diab B; Wolfson Palliative Care Research Centre, Hull York Medical School, University of Hull, Hull, UK.
  • Chang Y; Department of Internal Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, PO Box 11-0236, Riad-El-Solh Beirut 1107 2020, Beirut, Lebanon.
  • Lopes LC; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
  • Agarwal A; Pharmaceutical Sciences Post Graduate Course, University of Sorocaba, UNISO, Sorocaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
  • Li L; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
  • Mustafa RA; Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
  • Koujanian S; Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
  • Waziry R; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
  • Busse JW; Departments of Medicine and Biomedical and Health Informatics, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO, USA.
  • Dakik A; Department of Evaluative Clinical Sciences, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
  • Schünemann HJ; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Hooft L; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
  • Scholten RJ; Department of Anaesthesia, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
  • Guyatt GH; The Michael G DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
  • Akl EA; Canadian Veterans Chronic Pain Centre of Excellence, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
BMJ ; 370: m2898, 2020 08 26.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32847800
OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of bias associated with missing outcome data in systematic reviews. DESIGN: Imputation study. SETTING: Systematic reviews. POPULATION: 100 systematic reviews that included a group level meta-analysis with a statistically significant effect on a patient important dichotomous efficacy outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median percentage change in the relative effect estimate when applying each of the following assumption (four commonly discussed but implausible assumptions (best case scenario, none had the event, all had the event, and worst case scenario) and four plausible assumptions for missing data based on the informative missingness odds ratio (IMOR) approach (IMOR 1.5 (least stringent), IMOR 2, IMOR 3, IMOR 5 (most stringent)); percentage of meta-analyses that crossed the threshold of the null effect for each method; and percentage of meta-analyses that qualitatively changed direction of effect for each method. Sensitivity analyses based on the eight different methods of handling missing data were conducted. RESULTS: 100 systematic reviews with 653 randomised controlled trials were included. When applying the implausible but commonly discussed assumptions, the median change in the relative effect estimate varied from 0% to 30.4%. The percentage of meta-analyses crossing the threshold of the null effect varied from 1% (best case scenario) to 60% (worst case scenario), and 26% changed direction with the worst case scenario. When applying the plausible assumptions, the median percentage change in relative effect estimate varied from 1.4% to 7.0%. The percentage of meta-analyses crossing the threshold of the null effect varied from 6% (IMOR 1.5) to 22% (IMOR 5) of meta-analyses, and 2% changed direction with the most stringent (IMOR 5). CONCLUSION: Even when applying plausible assumptions to the outcomes of participants with definite missing data, the average change in pooled relative effect estimate is substantive, and almost a quarter (22%) of meta-analyses crossed the threshold of the null effect. Systematic review authors should present the potential impact of missing outcome data on their effect estimates and use this to inform their overall GRADE (grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation) ratings of risk of bias and their interpretation of the results.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Proyectos de Investigación / Metaanálisis como Asunto / Revisiones Sistemáticas como Asunto Tipo de estudio: Clinical_trials / Systematic_reviews Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: BMJ Asunto de la revista: MEDICINA Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Líbano Pais de publicación: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Proyectos de Investigación / Metaanálisis como Asunto / Revisiones Sistemáticas como Asunto Tipo de estudio: Clinical_trials / Systematic_reviews Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: BMJ Asunto de la revista: MEDICINA Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Líbano Pais de publicación: Reino Unido