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Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts.
Arns, Arne; Wahl, Thomas; Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Haigh, Ivan D; Woodworth, Philip; Niehüser, Sebastian; Jensen, Jürgen.
Afiliación
  • Arns A; Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Rostock, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 6, 18059, Rostock, Germany. arne.arns@uni-rostock.de.
  • Wahl T; Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, 12800 Pegasus Drive, Suite 211, Orlando, FL, 32816, USA.
  • Wolff C; Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, 24118, Kiel, Germany.
  • Vafeidis AT; Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, 24118, Kiel, Germany.
  • Haigh ID; School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom.
  • Woodworth P; National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, United Kingdom.
  • Niehüser S; Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Paul-Bonatz-Str. 9-11, 57076, Siegen, Germany.
  • Jensen J; Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Paul-Bonatz-Str. 9-11, 57076, Siegen, Germany.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 1918, 2020 04 21.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32317633
We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Alemania Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Alemania Pais de publicación: Reino Unido