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Effect of climatic factors on the seasonal fluctuation of human brucellosis in Yulin, northern China.
Liu, Kun; Yang, Zurong; Liang, Weifeng; Guo, Tianci; Long, Yong; Shao, Zhongjun.
Afiliación
  • Liu K; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China.
  • Yang Z; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China.
  • Liang W; Health Commission of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, 710003, China.
  • Guo T; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China.
  • Long Y; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China.
  • Shao Z; Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China. 13759981783@163.com.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 506, 2020 Apr 16.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32299414
BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a serious public health problem primarily affecting livestock workers. The strong seasonality of the disease indicates that climatic factors may play important roles in the transmission of the disease. However, the associations between climatic variability and human brucellosis are still poorly understood. METHODS: Data for a 14-year series of human brucellosis cases and seven climatic factors were collected in Yulin City from 2005 to 2018, one of the most endemic areas in northern China. Using cross-correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), we assessed the quantitative relationships and exposure-lag-response effects between monthly climatic factors and human brucellosis. RESULTS: A total of 7103 cases of human brucellosis were reported from 2005 to 2018 in Yulin City with a distinct peak between April and July each year. Seasonal fluctuations in the transmission of human brucellosis were significantly affected by temperature, sunshine duration, and evaporation. The effects of climatic factors were non-linear over the 6-month period, and higher values of these factors usually increased disease incidence. The maximum separate relative risk (RR) was 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.81) at a temperature of 17.4 °C, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.03-1.22) with 311 h of sunshine, and 1.18 (95% CI, 0.94-1.48) with 314 mm of evaporation. In addition, the effects of these three climatic factors were cumulative, with the highest RRs of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.09-4.57), 1.54 (95% CI, 1.10-2.18), and 1.27 (95% CI, 0.73-2.14), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In Yulin, northern China, variations in climatic factors, especially temperature, sunshine duration, and evaporation, contributed significantly to seasonal fluctuations of human brucellosis within 6 months. The key determinants of brucellosis transmission and the identified complex associations are useful references for developing strategies to reduce the disease burden.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Estaciones del Año / Tiempo (Meteorología) / Brucelosis Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: BMC Public Health Asunto de la revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Estaciones del Año / Tiempo (Meteorología) / Brucelosis Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Asia Idioma: En Revista: BMC Public Health Asunto de la revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Reino Unido