Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.

Oliveira, Anielly Galego de; Bailly, Dayani; Cassemiro, Fernanda A S; Couto, Edivando Vitor do; Bond, Nick; Gilligan, Dean; Rangel, Thiago F; Agostinho, Angelo Antonio; Kennard, Mark J

Oliveira, Anielly Galego de; Bailly, Dayani; Cassemiro, Fernanda A S; Couto, Edivando Vitor do; Bond, Nick; Gilligan, Dean; Rangel, Thiago F; Agostinho, Angelo Antonio; Kennard, Mark J.

Afiliación

Oliveira AGd; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais, Núcleo de Pesquisas em Ictiologia, Limnologia e Aquicultura (NUPÉLIA), Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil.
Bailly D; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais, Núcleo de Pesquisas em Ictiologia, Limnologia e Aquicultura (NUPÉLIA), Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil.
Cassemiro FAS; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
Couto EVD; Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná, Campo Mourão, PR, Brazil.
Bond N; Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, La Trobe University, Wodonga, Victoria, Australia.
Gilligan D; NSW Department of Primary Industries-Fisheries, Batemans Bay Fisheries Office, Batemans Bay, New South Wales, Australia.
Rangel TF; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
Agostinho AA; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais, Núcleo de Pesquisas em Ictiologia, Limnologia e Aquicultura (NUPÉLIA), Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil.
Kennard MJ; Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

PLoS One ; 14(11): e0225128, 2019.

Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31774852

RESUMEN

This study uses species distribution modeling and physiological and functional traits to predict the impacts of climate change on native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We modelled future changes in taxonomic and functional diversity in 2050 and 2080 for two scenarios of carbon emissions, identifying areas of great interest for conservation. Climatic-environmental variables were used to model the range of 23 species of native fish under each scenario. The consensus model, followed by the physiological filter of lethal temperature was retained for interpretation. Our study predicts a severe negative impact of climate change on both taxonomic and functional components of ichthyofauna of the Murray-Darling Basin. There was a predicted marked contraction of species ranges under both scenarios. The predictions showed loss of climatically suitable areas, species and functional characters. There was a decrease in areas with high values of functional richness, dispersion and uniqueness. Some traits are predicted to be extirpated, especially in the most pessimistic scenario. The climatic refuges for fish fauna are predicted to be in the southern portion of the basin, in the upper Murray catchment. Incorporating future predictions about the distribution of ichthyofauna in conservation management planning will enhance resilience to climate change.

Asunto(s)

Peces/clasificación; Peces/fisiología; Animales; Australia; Biodiversidad; Cambio Climático; Conservación de los Recursos Naturales; Demografía; Modelos Biológicos; Reproducción

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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Peces Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Animals País/Región como asunto: Oceania Idioma: En Revista: PLoS One Asunto de la revista: CIENCIA / MEDICINA Año: 2019 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Brasil Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos

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