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Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an Ensemble approach.
Leta, Samson; Fetene, Eyerusalem; Mulatu, Tesfaye; Amenu, Kebede; Jaleta, Megarsa Bedasa; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Negussie, Haileleul; Revie, Crawford W.
Afiliación
  • Leta S; Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, P. O. Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia. samiwude@gmail.com.
  • Fetene E; Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, P. O. Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia.
  • Mulatu T; National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Centre (NAHDIC), P. O. Box 04, Sebeta, Ethiopia.
  • Amenu K; Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, P. O. Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia.
  • Jaleta MB; Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, P. O. Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia.
  • Beyene TJ; Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, P. O. Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia.
  • Negussie H; Center for Outcome Research and Epidemiology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA.
  • Revie CW; Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, P. O. Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 14187, 2019 10 02.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31578399
Culicoides imicola is a midge species serving as vector for a number of viral diseases of livestock, including Bluetongue, and African Horse Sickness. C. imicola is also known to transmit Schmallenberg virus experimentally. Environmental and demographic factors may impose rapid changes on the global distribution of C. imicola and aid introduction into new areas. The aim of this study is to predict the global distribution of C. imicola using an ensemble modeling approach by combining climatic, livestock distribution and land cover covariates, together with a comprehensive global dataset of geo-positioned occurrence points for C. imicola. Thirty individual models were generated by 'biomod2', with 21 models scoring a true skill statistic (TSS) >0.8. These 21 models incorporated weighted runs from eight of ten algorithms and were used to create a final ensemble model. The ensemble model performed very well (TSS = 0.898 and ROC = 0.991) and indicated high environmental suitability for C. imicola in the tropics and subtropics. The habitat suitability for C. imicola spans from South Africa to southern Europe and from southern USA to southern China. The distribution of C. imicola is mainly constrained by climatic factors. In the ensemble model, mean annual minimum temperature had the highest overall contribution (42.9%), followed by mean annual maximum temperature (21.1%), solar radiation (13.6%), annual precipitation (11%), livestock distribution (6.2%), vapor pressure (3.4%), wind speed (0.8%), and land cover (0.1%). The present study provides the most up-to-date predictive maps of the potential distributions of C. imicola and should be of great value for decision making at global and regional scales.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Virosis / Virus de la Lengua Azul / Enfermedad Equina Africana / Culicomorpha Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Animals País/Región como asunto: Africa / Asia / Europa Idioma: En Revista: Sci Rep Año: 2019 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Etiopia Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Virosis / Virus de la Lengua Azul / Enfermedad Equina Africana / Culicomorpha Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Animals País/Región como asunto: Africa / Asia / Europa Idioma: En Revista: Sci Rep Año: 2019 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Etiopia Pais de publicación: Reino Unido