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A Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock: Development, Implementation, and Impact on Clinical Practice.
Giannini, Heather M; Ginestra, Jennifer C; Chivers, Corey; Draugelis, Michael; Hanish, Asaf; Schweickert, William D; Fuchs, Barry D; Meadows, Laurie; Lynch, Michael; Donnelly, Patrick J; Pavan, Kimberly; Fishman, Neil O; Hanson, C William; Umscheid, Craig A.
Afiliación
  • Giannini HM; Department of Medicine, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Ginestra JC; Department of Medicine, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Chivers C; University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Draugelis M; University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Hanish A; University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Schweickert WD; University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Fuchs BD; Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Meadows L; University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Lynch M; Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Donnelly PJ; Department of Nursing, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Pavan K; Department of Nursing, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Fishman NO; Department of Clinical Informatics, Pennsylvania Hospital, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Hanson CW; Penn Presbyterian Medical Center, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Umscheid CA; University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA.
Crit Care Med ; 47(11): 1485-1492, 2019 11.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31389839
OBJECTIVES: Develop and implement a machine learning algorithm to predict severe sepsis and septic shock and evaluate the impact on clinical practice and patient outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort for algorithm derivation and validation, pre-post impact evaluation. SETTING: Tertiary teaching hospital system in Philadelphia, PA. PATIENTS: All non-ICU admissions; algorithm derivation July 2011 to June 2014 (n = 162,212); algorithm validation October to December 2015 (n = 10,448); silent versus alert comparison January 2016 to February 2017 (silent n = 22,280; alert n = 32,184). INTERVENTIONS: A random-forest classifier, derived and validated using electronic health record data, was deployed both silently and later with an alert to notify clinical teams of sepsis prediction. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULT: Patients identified for training the algorithm were required to have International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition codes for severe sepsis or septic shock and a positive blood culture during their hospital encounter with either a lactate greater than 2.2 mmol/L or a systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg. The algorithm demonstrated a sensitivity of 26% and specificity of 98%, with a positive predictive value of 29% and positive likelihood ratio of 13. The alert resulted in a small statistically significant increase in lactate testing and IV fluid administration. There was no significant difference in mortality, discharge disposition, or transfer to ICU, although there was a reduction in time-to-ICU transfer. CONCLUSIONS: Our machine learning algorithm can predict, with low sensitivity but high specificity, the impending occurrence of severe sepsis and septic shock. Algorithm-generated predictive alerts modestly impacted clinical measures. Next steps include describing clinical perception of this tool and optimizing algorithm design and delivery.
Asunto(s)

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Choque Séptico / Algoritmos / Diagnóstico por Computador / Sepsis / Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas / Aprendizaje Automático Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Crit Care Med Año: 2019 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Choque Séptico / Algoritmos / Diagnóstico por Computador / Sepsis / Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas / Aprendizaje Automático Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Crit Care Med Año: 2019 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos