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Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015.
Camerer, Colin F; Dreber, Anna; Holzmeister, Felix; Ho, Teck-Hua; Huber, Jürgen; Johannesson, Magnus; Kirchler, Michael; Nave, Gideon; Nosek, Brian A; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Buttrick, Nick; Chan, Taizan; Chen, Yiling; Forsell, Eskil; Gampa, Anup; Heikensten, Emma; Hummer, Lily; Imai, Taisuke; Isaksson, Siri; Manfredi, Dylan; Rose, Julia; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Wu, Hang.
Afiliación
  • Camerer CF; California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
  • Dreber A; Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Holzmeister F; Department of Banking and Finance, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
  • Ho TH; NUS Business School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Huber J; Department of Banking and Finance, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
  • Johannesson M; Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Kirchler M; Department of Banking and Finance, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
  • Nave G; Centre for Finance, Department of Economics, University of Göteborg, Göteborg, Sweden.
  • Nosek BA; The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  • Pfeiffer T; Department of Psychology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA. nosek@cos.io.
  • Altmejd A; Center for Open Science, Charlottesville, VA, USA. nosek@cos.io.
  • Buttrick N; New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Auckland, New Zealand.
  • Chan T; Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Chen Y; Department of Psychology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Forsell E; Center for Open Science, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Gampa A; Office of the Senior Deputy President and Provost, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Heikensten E; John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Hummer L; Spotify Sweden AB, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Imai T; Department of Psychology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Isaksson S; Center for Open Science, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Manfredi D; Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Rose J; Center for Open Science, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
  • Wagenmakers EJ; Department of Economics, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
  • Wu H; Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Nat Hum Behav ; 2(9): 637-644, 2018 09.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31346273
Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress1-15. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 201516-36. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 13 (62%) studies, and the effect size of the replications is on average about 50% of the original effect size. Replicability varies between 12 (57%) and 14 (67%) studies for complementary replicability indicators. Consistent with these results, the estimated true-positive rate is 67% in a Bayesian analysis. The relative effect size of true positives is estimated to be 71%, suggesting that both false positives and inflated effect sizes of true positives contribute to imperfect reproducibility. Furthermore, we find that peer beliefs of replicability are strongly related to replicability, suggesting that the research community could predict which results would replicate and that failures to replicate were not the result of chance alone.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Investigación / Ciencias Sociales / Reproducibilidad de los Resultados Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nat Hum Behav Año: 2018 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Investigación / Ciencias Sociales / Reproducibilidad de los Resultados Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nat Hum Behav Año: 2018 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Estados Unidos Pais de publicación: Reino Unido