Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability.
Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; England, Matthew H; Sen Gupta, Alex; Santoso, Agus; Taschetto, Andréa S; Martin, Thomas; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib.
Afiliación
  • Bordbar MH; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24105, Kiel, Germany. Ocean.Circulation@gmail.com.
  • England MH; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, 2052, Australia.
  • Sen Gupta A; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, 2052, Australia.
  • Santoso A; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, 2052, Australia.
  • Taschetto AS; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, 7004, Australia.
  • Martin T; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, 2052, Australia.
  • Park W; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24105, Kiel, Germany.
  • Latif M; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24105, Kiel, Germany.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 1990, 2019 04 30.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31040269
Climate models generally simulate a long-term slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation in a warming world. However, despite increasing greenhouse forcing, there was an unprecedented intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds during 1992-2011, that co-occurred with a temporary slowdown in global surface warming. Using ensemble simulations from three different climate models starting from different initial conditions, we find a large spread in projected 20-year globally averaged surface air temperature trends that can be linked to differences in Pacific climate variability. This implies diminished predictive skill for global surface air temperature trends over decadal timescales, to a large extent due to intrinsic Pacific Ocean variability. We show, however, that this uncertainty can be considerably reduced when the initial oceanic state is known and well represented in the model. In this case, the spatial patterns of 20-year surface air temperature trends depend largely on the initial state of the Pacific Ocean.
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2019 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Alemania Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Año: 2019 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Alemania Pais de publicación: Reino Unido