Estimating CDKN2A mutation carrier probability among global familial melanoma cases using GenoMELPREDICT.
J Am Acad Dermatol
; 81(2): 386-394, 2019 Aug.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30731170
BACKGROUND: Although rare in the general population, highly penetrant germline mutations in CDKN2A are responsible for 5%-40% of melanoma cases reported in melanoma-prone families. We sought to determine whether MELPREDICT was generalizable to a global series of families with melanoma and whether performance improvements can be achieved. METHODS: In total, 2116 familial melanoma cases were ascertained by the international GenoMEL Consortium. We recapitulated the MELPREDICT model within our data (GenoMELPREDICT) to assess performance improvements by adding phenotypic risk factors and history of pancreatic cancer. We report areas under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) along with net reclassification indices (NRIs) as performance metrics. RESULTS: MELPREDICT performed well (AUC 0.752, 95% CI 0.730-0.775), and GenoMELPREDICT performance was similar (AUC 0.748, 95% CI 0.726-0.771). Adding a reported history of pancreatic cancer yielded discriminatory improvement (P < .0001) in GenoMELPREDICT (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.750-0.793, NRI 0.40). Including phenotypic risk factors did not improve performance. CONCLUSION: The MELPREDICT model functioned well in a global data set of familial melanoma cases. Adding pancreatic cancer history improved model prediction. GenoMELPREDICT is a simple tool for predicting CDKN2A mutational status among melanoma patients from melanoma-prone families and can aid in directing these patients to receive genetic testing or cancer risk counseling.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Neoplasias Pancreáticas
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Neoplasias Cutáneas
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Modelos Logísticos
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Inhibidor p16 de la Quinasa Dependiente de Ciclina
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Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad
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Melanoma
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Child
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Humans
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Am Acad Dermatol
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Estados Unidos