Derivation and external validation of the SHIeLD score for predicting outcome in normotensive pulmonary embolism.
Int J Cardiol
; 281: 119-124, 2019 Apr 15.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30638984
BACKGROUND: Identifying patients with normotensive pulmonary embolism (PE) who may benefit from thrombolysis remains challenging. We sought to develop and validate a score to predict 30-days PE-related mortality and/or rescue thrombolysis. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed 554 patients with normotensive PE. Independent predictors of the studied endpoint were identified from variables available at admission in the emergency department and were used to create a score. The model was validated in 308 patients from a separate hospital. RESULTS: A total of 64 patients died or needed rescue thrombolysis (44 in the derivation cohort). Four independent prognostic factors were identified: Shock indexâ¯≥â¯1.0 (OR 3.33; 95% CI 1.40-7.93; Pâ¯=â¯0.006), HypoxaemIa by the PaO2/FiO2 ratio (OR 0.92 per 10â¯units; 95% CI 0.88-0.97; Pâ¯<â¯0.001), Lactate (OR 1.38 per mmol/L; 95% CI 1.09-1.75; Pâ¯=â¯0.008) and cardiovascular Dysfunction (OR 5.67; 95% CI 2.60-12.33; Pâ¯<â¯0.001) - SHIeLD score. In the development cohort, event rates for each risk tercile were 0.0%, 2.2%, and 21.6%. In the validation cohort, corresponding rates were 0.0%, 1.9%, and 14.3%. The C-statistic was 0.90 (95% CI 0.86-0.94, Pâ¯<â¯0.001) in the derivation cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.89, Pâ¯<â¯0.001) in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis showed that the SHIeLD score is able to accurately identify more true positive cases than the European Society of Cardiology decision criteria. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score to predict 30-days PE-related mortality and/or rescue thrombolysis in patients with normotensive PE was developed and validated. This score may assist physicians in selecting patients for closer monitoring or aggressive treatment strategy.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Embolia Pulmonar
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Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
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Incidence_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Int J Cardiol
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Países Bajos