Past, present and future of Aedes aegypti in its South American southern distribution fringe: What do temperature and population tell us?
Acta Trop
; 190: 149-156, 2019 Feb.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30458122
Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) (Linnaeus) is currently the major threat among arbovirus vectors in the Americas. We examined its past, present, and future distribution patterns in the South American fringe in association with environmental and demographic variables at two spatial scales. We updated the database of the occurrence of Ae. aegypti per locality and modelled by GLMM the past occurrence (until 2000) and its expansion (2001-2017) as a function of air temperature, precipitation, altitude, and population. We also conducted a field survey in 7 pairs of urban/rural cemeteries along the entire temperature range within the expansion region. At both scales, mean annual air temperature and human population were significantly associated with the distribution of Ae. aegypti. Projection of the expansion models for 2030 under two climatic change scenarios showed a vast infestation, mainly driven by the shift of the 16 °C isotherm. We postulate a quantitative compromise between air temperature and human population associated with vector occurrence, along with potential thresholds for their mutual favourability.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Temperatura
/
Cambio Climático
/
Demografía
/
Aedes
/
Distribución Animal
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Aspecto:
Determinantes_sociais_saude
Límite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do sul
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Acta Trop
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Países Bajos