PURPOSE: Predictive value and accuracy of the acute pain trajectory were compared with those of pain intensity at 1 day after the surgery for pain prevalence at 6 months after the surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Female patients scheduled for breast cancer surgery were eligible for this study. Patients were questioned about pain intensity daily during the 7 days after surgery. Presence of pain, its location, and intensity as well as the Japanese version of the quality of the recovery-40 (QOR-40) were determined in an interview prior to and at 6 months after the surgery. Acute pain trajectory was determined by a group-based trajectory modeling analysis that was based on the pain intensity at 1-7 days after surgery. Predictive value of the acute pain trajectory for the presence of pain at 6 months after the surgery was assessed by a logistic regression model. The predictive value was compared with pain intensity at 1 day after the surgery. RESULTS: A total of 123 participants completed the 6-month follow-up. The three-cluster model (mild, moderate, and severe pain) was considered to be the most statistically appropriate model for the acute pain trajectory. After 6 months, 51.2% and 8.9% of participants reported pain and severe pain, respectively. Presence of pain at 6 months after the surgery was associated with poor recovery. The severe pain cluster was significantly associated with the presence of pain at 6 months after the surgery (adjusted odds ratio, 9.40; P<0.001 vs mild pain cluster). CONCLUSION: Classification of patients according to the acute pain trajectory, when compared with the classification according to pain intensity at 1 day after the surgery, made it possible to predict with better precision those patients who will develop persistent postsurgical pain.