Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics.
Epidemics
; 24: 98-104, 2018 09.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29567063
We will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing algorithms based on estimating reproductive numbers.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Dengue
/
Incertidumbre
/
Epidemias
/
Infección por el Virus Zika
/
Sarampión
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Evaluation_studies
/
Qualitative_research
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
/
America do sul
/
Brasil
/
Colombia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemics
Año:
2018
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Países Bajos