A real-time Global Warming Index.

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J.

Afiliación

Haustein K; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. karsten.haustein@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
Allen MR; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Forster PM; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Otto FEL; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Mitchell DM; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Matthews HD; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Frame DJ; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.

Sci Rep ; 7(1): 15417, 2017 11 13.

Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29133863

RESUMEN

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Sci Rep Año: 2017 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido

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